Mel Kiper did a mock draft back in February. He got 0 picks correct.

And not only that, he missed on each pick by an average of 19.1 draft spots. I like mock drafts, and I like Kiper. I just like them both a lot more after free agency and the Combine have taken place, and after legitimate journalists have gotten a sniff of what teams have interest in specific positions/players.

Kiper’s full mock from back in February:

Team Pick How much did Kiper miss by?
Chiefs Luke Joeckel 1
Jaguars Damontre Moore 79
Raiders Star Lotulelei 11
Eagles Dee Milliner 5
Lions Jarvis Jones 12
Browns Bjoern Werner 18
Cardinals Eric Fisher 6
Bills Alec Ogletree 22
Jets Dion Jordan 6
Titans Barkevious Mingo 4
Chargers Jonathan Cooper 4
Dolphins Cordarrelle Patterson 17
Buccaneers Manti Te’o 25
Panthers Sheldon Richardson 1
Saints Sharrif Floyd 8
Rams Lane Johnson 12
Steelers Ziggy Ansah 12
Cowboys Chance Warmack 8
Giants Zack Ertz 16
Bears DJ Fluker 9
Bengals Kenny Vaccaro 6
Rams Keenan Allen 54
Vikings Sylvester Williams 5
Colts Johnthan Banks 19
Seahawks Johnathan Hankins 24
Packers Eddie Lacy 35
Texans Quinton Patton 101
Broncos Kawann Short 16
Patriots Matt Elam 3
Falcons Tyler Eifert 9
49ers John Jenkins 51
Ravens Kevin Minter 13

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18 Comments

  1. Greg says:

    May not be very accurate but I find these mocks interesting after the fact. It’s kind of like what people are saying about Barkley, how a year earlier he could have been a top 10 pick. It adds some perspective to how the player looked at other points in time. (possibly before an injury, etc)

  2. The people demand mock drafts in February. And I think this was actually a reasonably good attempt. I don’t expect much more than a “rough-draft” draft at that point. I think he was starting to make some good assumptions at that point. And he was reacting to some things too little, other things too much, that were happening at the time. For example, he had the Eagles taking Milliner after they had ditched both their starting corners. He had Te’o going higher, thinking that the fake-girlfriend fuss would not harm him much and that teams would not consider it part of a larger character flaw. There were teams with new coaching staffs and new schemes and it is a little much to expect anyone to stay on top of everything.

    If there is a point, it is that you take a February mock for what it is, an early attempt to make sense of a lot of complex information to make it accessible for the NFL fans at large.

  3. PHILLYRICK says:

    Come on guys – Jimmy is clearly making a point that mock drafts in February are useless. To illustrate this point, he is using Kiper’s draft – Kiper, who is among the most knowledge and respected draftniks in the business – to show that even a consensus expert’s mock draft is useless in February, before Combine, free agency, individual workouts, etc. have begun. If Kiper’s draft is this off-base, how accurate do you think other February mock drafts are?

    1. Dirk says:

      >> a point that mock drafts in February are useless

      In regards to factually mocking a draft… completely useless. I think that point has already been proven and I dont see much of a movement against it.

      In regards to giving the fans something to read as the saddest season (off season) begins… Whats the opposite of useless?? As long as you go into them remembering point #1 theres a lot that can be taken from these types o articles. An article like this gives your average NFL fan, who is still reconditioning themselves to Sundays without football, a great place to start when it comes to researching the NFL draft.

  4. Mflick says:

    Well in fairness to Kiper, This was before Fisher’s arms started growing. With your game plan to move him to TE, the Chief’s HAD to take him.

    1. Outstanding point.

  5. Stan says:

    I guess this means that I probably shouldn’t read into mock drafts until the end of March or early April. Easier said than done, by February I’m fiending off my football fix.

  6. rage114 says:

    OK but did the others fare any better? On one hand, he looks like a schmuck for being so wrong. On the other hand, some props have to be given to stick his neck out before FA is over, before the writers have done their research, etc.

    1. I would imagine that a lot of mock drafts released in February are similarly bad. Not sure he deserves props for publishing a premature mock that either he or ESPN knew would generate a boatload of clicks.

      1. Dirk says:

        Do you deserve props for writting a “Mel Kiper iz stoopid” headline that will generate a boatload of clicks??

        1. Lol Dirk (or should I say “dt3″), this won’t generate a boatload of clicks, nor will I get “props” for discovering that his Feb mock had 0 correct picks. And I don’t expect it to.

          Why sockpuppet under a different name?

          1. DerfDiggy says:

            Boom…there goes the dynamite!

          2. Dirk says:

            Did you add the sock puppet part or did I just miss it the first time around??

            As far as the different name I just wasnt a big of the snarkiness this post was based around. Wanted to call you out on it without it becoming an ongoing thing across other forums (twitter, bgn, etc etc). Little did I know you had the cyberpolice ready with their backtracers ;)

            Follow up
            - Does he deserve props for at least getting within sniffing distance on some picks??
            - Hit right position for Chiefs, Lions, Browns, Cardinals (almost, OG vs OT), Chargers (almost, OT vs OG), Panthers, Steelers, Cowboys (almost C vs OG), Rams, Vikings, Texans, Broncos, Ravens (half point for calling MLB in round 1 when they got Brown in Round 2).
            -Giving him a half point for the almosts that gives him what… 11 teams, or a third of the league predicted correctly (position wise that is). Combine how early with this mock was written with how shitty the first round of this draft was and I dont think thats bad at all.

            Kiper is an easy target. Mock drafts are an easy target. A kiper mock draft from February is the equivalent of a 3 legged deer with a light/siren combo attached to its antlers.

        2. giantsfan says:

          Damn,

          I didn’t realize it was possible to white knight kiper.

      2. rage114 says:

        Point taken.

  7. TylerD says:

    As the old Colts GM once said “Who the Hell is Mel Kipper”

  8. Corry says:

    Mel Kiper is a very knowledgable draftnik, but he is horrible at matching up prospects and pro teams. McShay isn’t much better.

    1. Yeah agree. I greatly enjoy listening to Kiper talk about prospects, but I’m not sure he has anywhere near the same passion for the NFL

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