NFL Draft prop bets!

Bovada has some fun odds posted that I thought I’d take a crack at:

1. How many QB’s will be selected in the 1st Rd?

Over-under is 1.

OVER! OVER! OVER!

2. How many Safeties will be selected in the 1st Rd?

Over-under is 2.5.

Very tough call. Kenny Vaccaro and Jonathan Cyprien are probably going in the 1st. Then you have Matt Elam, Eric Reid. Will one of those guys slip into the 1st? I think the Niners will take one, but will they take on at 31 or 34? That’s the key. Or will they trade up? I’m going to say under.

3. How many WR’s will be selected in the 1st Rd?

Over-under is 3.

I think 3 is the number. Wouldn’t touch it.

4. How many offensive players will be drafted in the 1st Round? 

Over-under is 13.

Wow, 13? That’s it? Just 41.9%? Let me look at my mock… Hang on.

Ha, wow, 13 on the nose. I guess I wouldn’t touch this one either.

5. Who will be the 2nd Pick Overall?

  • Eric Fisher
  • Dion Jordan
  • Geno Smith
  • Luke Joeckel
  • Ziggy Ansah

Give me Fisher.

6. Who will be the 3rd Pick Overall?

  • Sharrif Floyd
  • Someone else

I have Floyd going there, but if given the choice of “everybody else,” I’ll take “everybody else.”

7. Who will be the 4th Pick Overall?

  • Star Lotulelei
  • Lane Johnson
  • Chance Warmack
  • Dion Jordan

Yikes. I’m a little scared that Vegas thinks Chance Warmack might go 4th. I’ll take Dion Jordan here.

8. Who will be the 5th Pick Overall?

  • Lane Johnson
  • Eric Fisher
  • Ziggy Ansah
  • Dee Milliner

I think 3 OTs are going to be gone in the first 3 picks, so I’ll take Lane Johnson.

9. Draft Position – Geno Smith 

Over-under: 8.5

Under.

10. Draft Position – Matt Barkley

Over-under: 37.5

Over.

11. Draft Position – Marcus Lattimore

Over-under 84.5

Over.

12. Draft Position – Tavon Austin

Over-under 13.5

Wow, tough one. Over.

13. Draft Position – Manti Te’o

Over-under 25.5

Over.

14. Draft Position – Eddie Lacy

Over-under 22.5

I’m certain I’m in the minority here, but under.

15. Who will be drafted 1st?

  • Justin Hunter
  • DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins.

16. Draft Position – Tyrann Mathieu 

Over-under is 75.5

Emphatic over.

17. Will the Eagles trade the 4th pick overall? 

I hope so. Of all the teams in the top 5, I think they have the best chance of trading out, but if given an either/or ultimatum, I think they’re more likely to make a pick at 4.

18. How many defensive players will be drafted in the 1st Round?

This is pretty much the reverse of the above question about the offensive players, which I had the exact number they were pitching, so I wouldn’t touch this one either.

13 Comments

  1. Daz says:

    In Australia, we’re getting QBs in the first over/under at 1.5 – but it’s paying $2.30 for a $1 bet!! (not sure if our odds translate to your way of betting, hope it makes sense). Surely there’ll be at least two gone before the end of the first? worth a tenner me thinks…

  2. deg0ey says:

    On #6, ‘someone else’ is the obvious choice. Especially when you consider that the Raiders have reportedly been trying to trade down and, if two OTs go in the first two picks, someone might see the Eagles as a threat to draft Johnson and move ahead of them to grab him.

    1. icdogg says:

      all of those bets are action only if the team now holding the pick is the one picking. Otherwise the bets are off

      1. deg0ey says:

        Oh…well I’m not betting on any of them then.

  3. Dan in Philly says:

    I really enjoy the draft, especially when there’s change in the coaching staff. Football is the most intellectual of all games, while at the same time being the most brutal, and this time of the year it’s almost all intellectual. Select responses:

    1) I’ll take the under here. Just don’t see any teams taking the chance of what look to be project QBs. I am not sure any of these QBs would be drafted in the 1st round last year.
    12) Over. I’m not buying the Tavon Austin project. It’s quite possible that in hindsight he’ll be worth a top 13 pick, but at his size I don’t see a lot of teams looking for him, and of the teams in the top 15 who might want him (the Eagles being one), I think better options exist.

    13) Over. Only interesting because of the drama surrounding him. Strip that away and he seems like he’s either too light or too slow, without the ability to shed blockers I think he may be a starter, but nothing special.

    14) Way over. I don’t see Lacy being an impact player. I don’t see him being the top RB taken.

    17) I’ll take the trade, but there’s so many wild cards for the Eagles, I can’t say.

  4. rage114 says:

    Just to clarify…when you say “under”, you mean “before”? LIke on Smith, with “under”, you mean no later than the 8th overall pick?

    1. Under, as in the number would be lower.

  5. Iskar36 says:

    On a more serious comment, do you think you would rather trade out of pick 4 if Jordan is there or draft Jordan? I know I certainly wouldn’t be upset with Jordan in the least, but he has waaay to many question marks for me to pass up on an opportunity to trade back and add some extra picks later in the draft.

    1. If you REALLY like Jordan, I think a trade back with the Lions at 5 would be a safe bet. I don’t see them taking Jordan. That way you can get an extra pick or two for free.

      1. iskar36 says:

        Certainly if the Eagles REALLY like Jordan, they shouldn’t pass on him, and I would not argue that pick in the least. Having said that, given the opportunity to trade back to the 8-12 range (assuming you get reasonable value in the trade), would you take the trade over taking Jordan, or at this point do you think Jordan is too good to pass up if he gets to 4? Obviously the Eagles opinion may not match yours, I’m just curious how others feel about Jordan compared to a trade back.

        1. OK, so if the Dolphins give up a 2, a 4 and a 5 to move up? Done.

  6. Iskar36 says:

    I’m sure plenty of people will point it out, but “I think the Niners will take one, but will they take on at 31 or 35?” You meant 34 I assume. Or are you suggesting the Eagles have a trade in place with the 49ers?

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