Could the Eagles be eyeing a trade-back with the Dolphins?

Earlier today, Adam Caplan of Sirius/XM reported that the Eagles were working out Oklahoma LT Lane Johnson. Caplan also noted that “in his 12 years of going to Senior Bowl practices, he couldn’t recall a more dominant performance from a LT than Lane Johnson’s.”

Johnson stood out to me as well, as he made my list of 10 players that impressed me at the Senior Bowl. But that was only the beginning of Johnson’s extraordinarily impressive pre-draft process. At the NFL Combine, Johnson shined. The following is a chart of how Johnson performed at the 2013 Combine, and how he compared with all other offensive tackles that participated in various drills at the Combine since 2003:

Lane Johnson Combine

Johnson played RT at Oklahoma in 2011, then moved to LT in 2012. If the Eagles were to draft him, Johnson would fit in well with how the Eagles might use him. The idea would be for Johnson to slide right in at RT from Day 1, while Todd Herremans would move to RG. The OL would look like this:

Continued at the Allentown Morning Call…

11 Comments

  1. The Birch of the Shadow…

    I believe there could be considered a couple duplicates, but an exceedingly helpful checklist! I’ve tweeted this. Many thanks for sharing!…

  2. Brian says:

    If the Eagles do trade bback, then they should be thinking Ziggy Ansah or Tayvon Austin. There’s enough depth at offensive tackle this year that if you don’t get one of the top three, you can still score a project like Armstead. Either get the three big fish in the top ten, or drop back.

  3. iskar36 says:

    I posted this awhile back as a comment in one of Tommy’s posts over at Igglesblitz, but I saw your comment here that the draft trade chart is outdated and thought this was relevant:

    Here are all the trades involving top 10 picks in the last 10 drafts for reference (hopefully I didn’t miss any). In addition, in parenthesis, I determined the value difference in the trade for any trade not involving players (for future picks, I used the value of the top of a round later). A negative number means that the team moving back benefited based on the draft trade value chart.

    2012:
    1. St. Louis -> Washington –
    2nd overall for 6th and 39th overall, 2013 1st, 2014 1st (-355)
    2. Minnesota -> Cleveland –
    3rd overall for 4th, 139th and 211th overall (356.5)
    3. Tampa Bay -> Jacksonville –
    5th overall for 7th and 101st overall (104)
    4. St. Louis -> Dallas –
    6th overall for 14th and 45th overall (50)

    2011:
    1. Cleveland -> Atlanta –
    6th overall for 26th, 59th, 124th overall and 2012 1st and 4th round picks (-81)
    2. Washington -> Jacksonville –
    10th overall for 16th and 49th overall (-110)

    2010:
    None in the top 10.

    2009:
    1. Cleveland -> NYJ –
    5th overall for 17th and 52nd overall plus Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff, and Abram Elam

    2008:
    1. New England -> New Orleans –
    7th and 164th overall for 10th and 78th overall (25.8)
    2. Baltimore -> Jacksonville –
    8th overall for 26th, 71st, 89th, and 125th overall (273)

    2007:
    1. Houston -> Atlanta –
    8th and 39th overall plus 2008 2nd rounder for 10th overall and Matt Schaub.

    2006:
    None in the top 10.

    2005:
    1. Oakland -> Minnesota –
    7th and 219th overall and Napoleon Harris for Randy Moss

    2004:
    1. San Diego -> NYG –
    Manning (1st overall) for Rivers (4th overall) and 65 overall plus 1st and 5th round selections in 2005. (328)
    2. Detroit -> Cleveland –
    6th overall for 7th and 37th overall. (-430)

    2003:
    1. Chicago -> NYJ –
    4th overall for 13th, 22nd, and 116th overall. (-192)
    2. Arizona -> New Orleans –
    6th, 37th, and 102 overall for 17th, 18th, and 54th overall (12)

    Couple of notes from above. First off, the draft trade chart changed when they signed the new CBA to reflect the change in the contract sizes that top 10 picks used to make and that’s not reflected here, so it’s not entirely accurate. Having said that, clearly the trade value chart is not a defining chart in terms of determining trade value. Some teams seem to get very close to the values while other teams are very far off. Interestingly however, when you average all the numbers above, the average difference in trade values over the past ten seasons for top 10 picks comes to -1.6, so while it is not a great determining factor for individual trades, it seems to be a good guide for the general trends in terms of trades.

    1. NYG_Slater says:

      Interesting stuff, thanks for posting it. As you mentioned, the new CBA and contract size should make the costs of trading up less prohibitive. It”ll be interesting to see if we witness this in practice.

      I think one reason why trade values fluctuated so much in the top 10 is because the picks are tied to specific players. For example, Washington traded for RG3 and not just a homogeneous #2 pick. It just so happened that they could get RG3 with that 2nd pick, but the pick was not really what they trading for. If RG3 was available for the 3rd pick, I bet they would have paid the same amount.

  4. NYG_Slater says:

    Could see the Dolphins trading up. Just not with Philly, or the price you mentioned. Go back and look at previous draft day trades (Fletcher cox for example). Compare the value actually received vs the amount suggested via the draft value chart. Ill save ya the time, Its way way off, like by 40% value.

    For this year draft, according to the scouts, the difference in talent between the 5th-25th ranked prospects is much smaller than in previous years. The dolphins would be incredibly stupid to give up sticker price for the #4 pick (1800pts) in a weak draft for top-tier talent. . A more reasonable trade would be the dolphins giving up 1600-1625 pts.

    Plus, from the eagles perspective, there’s no guarantee Johnson would be there at 12, and the compensation wouldn’t be that great. IMO, its to risky, or too much wishful thinking.

    1. I think the implication here is that the Dolphins would move up to #4 to take Lane Johnson. Id’ be stunned if Johnson lasted pass the Cardinals/Chargers and fell to 12 with how desperate they are for OL help

      1. NYG_Slater says:

        ah gotcha. I misread it as two connected ideas. (1) L. Johnson is really good, and (2) the eagles could trade back with Miami.

        But ya, If any of the 3 tackles are still around after Arizona, I’d expect the chargers to be looking to trade up pronto.

    2. deg0ey says:

      I’ve actually seen it suggested that Johnson might be Chip’s preferred OL in this draft and that the Eagles might actually take him at #4.

      With that said, if two OTs are off the board in the first 3 picks then #4 takes on big value. Detroit, Arizona, San Diego and Miami are all in need of help on the offensive line and, if nobody trades up, there’s a good chance that Philly takes the last one that can be counted on to start from day 1.

      Whilst your original point is valid that the value chart is pretty unreliable in terms of what you’re likely to get in a trade, if somebody is desperate enough then they’ll pay the price.

      Look at the Julio Jones trade for example. Cleveland gave up #6 (1600 points) for #26, #59, #124 (combined 1058 points) in the same draft and a first and fourth the following year (bearing in mind that even if Atlanta had won the Super Bowl, the minimum value of that first rounder would be 590 points) so that’s at least chart value if not more.

      Likewise for RG3. Pick #2 (2600 points) netted #6, #39 (2110 points) and two more first rounders (at least 590 points each; minimum of 1180 total).

      I’m not saying there’ll be as much desperation as that, but the point is that the value of the pick is equivalent to how desperate Miami are to move up, not previous trades or any preconceived notions of value.

  5. Ranjeeth says:

    Not a fan of Lane Johnson’s. H seems like the type of person who would stop trying because h had a few suckish first years. H needs support or trust to gain purpose in work, opposite of Fisher.

  6. Dan in Philly says:

    I love the buildup to the draft…

  7. Joe D says:

    Yikes,, I hope hes more than just a workout warrior

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