Grading our compensatory pick projections

For the 2nd straight year, Craig was very accurate:

  • Correctly matched 24 teams with the round.
  • Correctly predicted a pick for 5 teams, but was off by one round.
  • Predicted a pick for the Raiders in the 6th, which they didn’t receive. The Colts received that pick instead. In the comment section of the original prediction, Craig noted that the Colts had a very rare situation this year, and could potentially mess up the prediction.
  • The NFL awarded 32 “normal” comp picks, instead of 30. Craig had 30 “normal” picks and two “leftovers” going to the Chiefs and Jags, the first two teams in the draft order. The Dolphins got one of those unaccounted for picks, and actually, the Chiefs got the other. I’m sure Craig will explain these minor inaccuracies in the comment section.

All in all, an incredible job. Here’s what he predicted, and what each team was actually awarded:

Team Round Player lost Did we get it?
Texans 3 Mario Williams Correct
Chiefs 3 Brandon Carr Correct
Titans 3 Cortland Finnegan Correct
Lions 4 Eric Wright Correct
Ravens 4 Ben Grubbs Correct
49ers 4 Josh Morgan Correct
Falcons 4 Curtis Lofton Correct
Packers 4 Matt Flynn 5, not a 4.
Dolphins 4 Kendall Langford 5, not a 4.
Ravens 5 Jarret Johnson Correct
Titans 5 Jason Jones 6, not a 5.
Texans 6 Jason Allen Correct
Raiders 6 Samson Satele Correct
Raiders 6 Michael Bush Raiders were not awarded this pick. Colts received a 7.
Ravens 6 Cory Redding Correct
Giants 6 Aaron Ross 7, not a 6
Steelers 7 William Gay 6, not a 7
Eagles 7 Steve Smith Correct
Bengals 7 Chad Simpson Correct
Ravens 7 Tom Zbikowski Correct
Seahawks 7 Charlie Whitehurst Correct
Seahawks 7 Atari Bigby Correct
Falcons 7 Eric Weems Correct
Bengals 7 Mike McGlynn Correct
49ers 7 Blake Costanzo Correct
Lions 7 Drew Stanton Correct
49ers 7 Madieu Williams Correct
Falcons 7 James Sanders Correct
Titans 7 William Hayes Correct
Falcons 7 Kelvin Hayden Correct
Jaguars 7 Additional pick Dolphins got a pick
Chiefs 7 Additional pick Chiefs were awarded a 6th round pick


  1. KD says:

    Incredible work- hat tip.

  2. Amazing work Craig – thanks for bringing this to us Jimmy

  3. lutz says:

    Why did the Packers only get a 5th for Flynn?

    1. My guess would be that Saturday cancelled out Wells, and they only awarded a 5 for Flynn because he barely played, but CT may see it differently.

      1. lutz says:

        Thanks. I know Saturday cancelled Wells but playing time is usually not that big a factor

        1. ct17 says:

          Playing time was a big factor this year for some players, but not for all. It explains Wheeler’s inclusion, but not how Jason Jones and his half million more got a pick below Jason Allen and his 3 snaps. I will be looking into whether contract length now matters.

          Flynn’s contract numbers are constantly changing. I think there is a lot of garbage in it, and the league went with a low potential number.

  4. ct17 says:

    The NFL counted all players that spent the full season on IR, except for Artis Hicks, since he was cut by Miami after being placed on IR. This added Miami’s 7th and cut the Giants’ 6th.

    Phillip Wheeler and his $710,000 salary counted for Oakland, the lowest I’ve ever seen. Not only that, two out of Samson Satele, Jason Campbell and Michael Bush and their $3.5 million per year contracts were valued as 7th rounders, while William Gay and his $1.6 million per year contract was valued as a 6th rounder for Pittsburgh. Oakland fans should be burning down the league offices right about now.

    Kansas City got a pick for Barry Richardson and his $810,000 salary with St. Louis. I thought that might happen. Indy’s pick was a net value pick.

  5. NYG_Slater says:

    Wow did the giants miss out on a 6th by IR’ing Rodgers? Shoulda cut his fat ass in the preseason. JR shoulda of known better :/

    1. NYG_Slater says:

      just to make the list accurate, I think the giants 7th round comp was considered a “net value pick” and not due specifically to Aaron Ross. CT can correct me if I’m wrong here.

      1. ct17 says:

        You are right on both accounts. We lost the 6th for Rogers, and it became a net value pick instead.

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