A year ago, we looked at Mel Kiper’s very first 2012 big board from back in May of 2011. That big board did not include Robert Griffin III, Morris Claiborne, Fletcher Cox, etc., and it was before we knew that guys like Vontaze Burfict, Donte Paige-Moss, and Cliff Harris had “other issues.” Here’s Kiper’s very first 2012 big board, and where they were actually drafted:
| Kiper rank | Player | Pos | School | Where were they drafted? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Luck | QB | Stanford | 1 |
| 2 | Quinton Coples | DE | North Carolina | 16 |
| 3 | Matt Kalil | OT | USC | 4 |
| 4 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | South Carolina | 45 |
| 5 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | Stayed in school |
| 6 | Jonathan Martin | OT | Stanford | 42 |
| 7 | Justin Blackmon | WR | Oklahoma St. | 5 |
| 8 | Jerel Worthy | DT | Michigan St. | 51 |
| 9 | Dre Kirkpatrick | CB | Alabama | 17 |
| 10 | Landry Jones | QB | Oklahoma | Stayed in school |
| 11 | Riley Reiff | OT | Iowa | 23 |
| 12 | Vontaze Burfict | ILB | Arizona St. | UDFA |
| 13 | Trent Richardson | RB | Alabama | 3 |
| 14 | Donte Paige-Moss | DE | North Carolina | Currently in CFL |
| 15 | Cliff Harris | CB | Oregon | UDFA |
| 16 | Luke Kuechly | ILB | Boston College | 9 |
| 17 | Jayron Hosley | CB | Virginia Tech | 94 |
| 18 | Ray-Ray Armstrong | S | Miami | Stayed in school |
| 19 | Stephon Gilmore | CB | South Carolina | 10 |
| 20 | Manti Te’o | ILB | Notre Dame | Stayed in school |
| 21 | Chase Minnefield | CB | Virginia | UDFA |
| 22 | Jared Crick | DT | Nebraska | 126 |
| 23 | Marcus Forston | DT | Miami | UDFA |
| 24 | Andre Branch | DE | Clemson | 38 |
| 25 | Courtney Upshaw | OLB | Alabama | 35 |
Five of those prospects or 20% of Kiper’s top 25 didn’t even get drafted, and one of them is currently playing in the CFL. A sixth, Ray Ray Armstrong, did not declare for the draft last year and may not be drafted in 2013.
That’s not to goof of Kiper. It’s just kind of fascinating to me how much can change in less than a year. Here’s Kiper’s first 2013 big board from back in 2012, and where CBS currently has each prospect rated:
| Kiper rank | Player | Pos | School | Where does CBS rank them now? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | 18 |
| 2 | Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | 8 |
| 3 | Barkevious Mingo | DE | LSU | 9 |
| 4 | Logan Thomas | QB | Virginia Tech | Stayed in school |
| 5 | Sam Montgomery | DE | LSU | 32 |
| 6 | DJ Fluker | OT | Alabama | 24 |
| 7 | Robert Woods | WR | USC | 43 |
| 8 | David Amerson | CB | North Carolina St. | 87 |
| 9 | Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | 7 |
| 10 | Manti Te’o | ILB | Notre Dame | 38 |
| 11 | Johnathan Hankins | DT | Ohio St. | 28 |
| 12 | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan | Stayed in school |
| 13 | Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | 42 |
| 14 | Johnny Adams | CB | Michigan St. | 227 |
| 15 | Kawann Short | DT | Purdue | 40 |
| 16 | Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | 1 |
| 17 | William Gholston | DE | Michigan St. | 140 |
| 18 | Keenan Allen | WR | Cal | 13 |
| 19 | Marcus Lattimore | RB | South Carolina | 122 |
| 20 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida St. | 17 |
| 21 | Le’Veon Bell | RB | Michigan St. | 134 |
| 22 | Johnthan Banks | CB | Mississippi St. | 33 |
| 23 | Corey Lemonier | DE | Auburn | 120 |
| 24 | Ricky Wagner | DT | Wisconsin | Stayed in school |
| 25 | Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | 37 |
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I’m sorry, I couldn’t agree with you less about McShay. I’m pretty sure he’s a blithering idiot. The guy just spits out buzz-words that the average person would never even consider looking at, so people can’t verify his accuracy on them. Here’s an example of him completly talking about his ass about Jayron Hosely:
http://www.techsideline.com/2012/04/18/espns-todd-mcshay-comments-on-david-wilson-and-jayron-hosley/
For those who don’t like to click on the links, he claimed Hosely has “short arms,” something I heard him say about several players last year. Here’s the ESPN sports science episode on Jayron:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6901616&categoryid=2378529
In this episode they make a huge deal about how long Jayron’s arms are, and how they allow him to outjump taller recievers. McShay just wanted to sound smart and so made something up about a player that the average layperson would have no way to check on.
Hey Jimmy, think a walk-off might be needed between Ed Wang and Josh LeRibeus…
http://www.beyondbadminton.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/ed_wang_buffalo_bills.jpg
Ha, that’s no contest. LaRib still the champ.
[...] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of [...]
[...] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of [...]
[...] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of [...]
So, basically, don’t take mock draft seriously until April. Or ever. Gotcha.
Kiper, Mcshay, most of the media analysts/mockers don’t do their projections based only on their own tape study, they talk to actual team scouts to get a feel for where guys might fall. So depending on who they talk to, and when, their boards/mocks can change drastically.
The only media analyst that I actually believe, when he says he ranks his guys off his own tape study, is Mayock. His rankings tend to be a little bit…unique, but fair. Currently hes got sharrif floyd ahead of Star. I’m a little bit upset about that….really liked floyd–doesn’t seem likely to make it to 19.
Wagner is a tackle who came out for the draft. He was overrated since 2011. Logan Thomas was ranked purely on size and Cam Newton comparisons. He lacks and has always lacked most QB skills.
Bell could be a real sleeper with his size and athleticism. He made the mistake of starting out strong and fading at the end of the season, after teams discovered Mich St had no passing offense despite hype for Maxwell.
Some of those are just absurd. I can understand swinging and missing on guys like William Gholston and Logan Thomas, they’re guys with tools to be better than they are. But Johnny Adams, Leveon Bell, Ricky Wagner and David Amerson? That’s just plain whiffing.
I don’t count Kiper as an analyst, he’s really just the Adam Schefter of the draft. He’s really well connected. I’m interested in reading Todd McShay’s because he’s improved quite a bit in my eyes over the past few years.
To be fair, Chase Minnifield was a UDFA due to his knee injury. If he hadn’t been injured, he would have likely been a second rounder. He still, potentially, could be very good if he can come back from microfracture surgery. Redskins fans will know this summer.
Yup, there are all kinds of assorted reasons why guys fell. Just interesting how much can change in a year.