A look back at Mel Kiper’s very first 2013 big board from back in May 2012

A year ago, we looked at Mel Kiper’s very first 2012 big board from back in May of 2011. That big board did not include Robert Griffin III, Morris Claiborne, Fletcher Cox, etc., and it was before we knew that guys like Vontaze Burfict, Donte Paige-Moss, and Cliff Harris had “other issues.”  Here’s Kiper’s very first 2012 big board, and where they were actually drafted:

Kiper rank Player Pos School Where were they drafted?
1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford 1
2 Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 16
3 Matt Kalil OT USC 4
4 Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina 45
5 Matt Barkley QB USC Stayed in school
6 Jonathan Martin OT Stanford 42
7 Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma St. 5
8 Jerel Worthy DT Michigan St. 51
9 Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama 17
10 Landry Jones QB Oklahoma Stayed in school
11 Riley Reiff OT Iowa 23
12 Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona St. UDFA
13 Trent Richardson RB Alabama 3
14 Donte Paige-Moss DE North Carolina Currently in CFL
15 Cliff Harris CB Oregon UDFA
16 Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College 9
17 Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech 94
18 Ray-Ray Armstrong S Miami Stayed in school
19 Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina 10
20 Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame Stayed in school
21 Chase Minnefield CB Virginia UDFA
22 Jared Crick DT Nebraska 126
23 Marcus Forston DT Miami UDFA
24 Andre Branch DE Clemson 38
25 Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama 35

Five of those prospects or 20% of Kiper’s top 25 didn’t even get drafted, and one of them is currently playing in the CFL. A sixth, Ray Ray Armstrong, did not declare for the draft last year and may not be drafted in 2013.

That’s not to goof of Kiper. It’s just kind of fascinating to me how much can change in less than a year. Here’s Kiper’s first 2013 big board from back in 2012, and where CBS currently has each prospect rated:

Kiper rank Player Pos School Where does CBS rank them now?
1 Matt Barkley QB USC 18
2 Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia 8
3 Barkevious Mingo DE LSU 9
4 Logan Thomas QB Virginia Tech Stayed in school
5 Sam Montgomery DE LSU 32
6 DJ Fluker OT Alabama 24
7 Robert Woods WR USC 43
8 David Amerson CB North Carolina St. 87
9 Star Lotulelei DT Utah 7
10 Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame 38
11 Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio St. 28
12 Taylor Lewan OT Michigan Stayed in school
13 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 42
14 Johnny Adams CB Michigan St. 227
15 Kawann Short DT Purdue 40
16 Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M 1
17 William Gholston DE Michigan St. 140
18 Keenan Allen WR Cal 13
19 Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina 122
20 Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St. 17
21 Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan St. 134
22 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi St. 33
23 Corey Lemonier DE Auburn 120
24 Ricky Wagner DT Wisconsin Stayed in school
25 Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame 37

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  1. Hokieshibe says:

    I’m sorry, I couldn’t agree with you less about McShay. I’m pretty sure he’s a blithering idiot. The guy just spits out buzz-words that the average person would never even consider looking at, so people can’t verify his accuracy on them. Here’s an example of him completly talking about his ass about Jayron Hosely:


    For those who don’t like to click on the links, he claimed Hosely has “short arms,” something I heard him say about several players last year. Here’s the ESPN sports science episode on Jayron:


    In this episode they make a huge deal about how long Jayron’s arms are, and how they allow him to outjump taller recievers. McShay just wanted to sound smart and so made something up about a player that the average layperson would have no way to check on.

  2. Josh says:

    Hey Jimmy, think a walk-off might be needed between Ed Wang and Josh LeRibeus…


    1. Ha, that’s no contest. LaRib still the champ.

  3. […] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of […]

  4. […] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of […]

  5. […] a recent comparison, Blogging the Beast took a look at Mel Kiper’s original draft board of both 2012 and 2013, and a lot of […]

  6. Imp says:

    So, basically, don’t take mock draft seriously until April. Or ever. Gotcha.

  7. NYG_slater says:

    Kiper, Mcshay, most of the media analysts/mockers don’t do their projections based only on their own tape study, they talk to actual team scouts to get a feel for where guys might fall. So depending on who they talk to, and when, their boards/mocks can change drastically.
    The only media analyst that I actually believe, when he says he ranks his guys off his own tape study, is Mayock. His rankings tend to be a little bit…unique, but fair. Currently hes got sharrif floyd ahead of Star. I’m a little bit upset about that….really liked floyd–doesn’t seem likely to make it to 19.

  8. ct17 says:

    Wagner is a tackle who came out for the draft. He was overrated since 2011. Logan Thomas was ranked purely on size and Cam Newton comparisons. He lacks and has always lacked most QB skills.

    Bell could be a real sleeper with his size and athleticism. He made the mistake of starting out strong and fading at the end of the season, after teams discovered Mich St had no passing offense despite hype for Maxwell.

  9. Some of those are just absurd. I can understand swinging and missing on guys like William Gholston and Logan Thomas, they’re guys with tools to be better than they are. But Johnny Adams, Leveon Bell, Ricky Wagner and David Amerson? That’s just plain whiffing.

    I don’t count Kiper as an analyst, he’s really just the Adam Schefter of the draft. He’s really well connected. I’m interested in reading Todd McShay’s because he’s improved quite a bit in my eyes over the past few years.

  10. RedskinsFan says:

    To be fair, Chase Minnifield was a UDFA due to his knee injury. If he hadn’t been injured, he would have likely been a second rounder. He still, potentially, could be very good if he can come back from microfracture surgery. Redskins fans will know this summer.

    1. Yup, there are all kinds of assorted reasons why guys fell. Just interesting how much can change in a year.

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