(Note by the editor: This research was conducted by Blogging the bEast’s official Compensatory Pick Expert, “ct17.” C.T. did this for Blogging the bEast last year as well, and despite the difficulties of working with incomplete data as a result of the lockout shortened 2011 offseason, C.T. was very accurate. This year, the data at his disposal was more complete, so it is likely that he’ll be just as accurate or even more so this time around. Take it away, C.T.)…
As a disclaimer, I claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I merely used AdamJT13’s posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. You can also follow him on Twitter here. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:
1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning low minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
It should be noted that although the NFL makes public the basic rules above, even the NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumption based upon past history, just as I have done.
Here are the projections. We’ll show the work behind the projections after the jump:
Last year with the shortened offseason a lot of contracts went unreported. This year I only had that problem once. Last year we also saw a new stricter standard to get a 3rd round pick.
I awarded 30 normal comp picks. Last year the cutoff for considering players eligible was in the $800k-$900k range. I counted several players that received 1-year contracts for $890k, but not Barry Richardson, who received a 1-year deal for $800k. He ended up starting for St. Louis, so he may be counted, which would give Kansas City a 6th round pick (see below, for Orton, Quinn would then cancel out Richardson). This is the tricky area because the location of the cutoff line could affect multiple picks. Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco could lose 7th round picks, and Houston and the Giants could gain 6th round picks if particular older players making the veteran minimum are not counted.
Injured Reserve status may also affect some of these picks. AdamJT13 was unable to explain why some IR players counted and some did not. Here I did not count players on 1-year deals placed on IR before the start of the season, since logically these players could have been cut, eliminating them from comp pick consideration. There were 4 players in this category, but they only affected 2 picks, potentially eliminating Miami’s 4th and the Giants’ 6th. I counted players on IR that received 2-year deals, because the signing team just has a delayed benefit from the player. If they are not counted, Cincinnati would gain a 7th round pick. Players placed on IR during the season were counted, but this had no effect on the results.
The draft order was formed based upon contract amount and playing time. AdamJT13 has a playing time equation, but I am just guessing here. There are also unknown variables, as I still cannot explain Clint Session’s drop last year. Baltimore reached the maximum of 4 comp picks, otherwise I would have given them an additional 7th round pick for losing Brandon McKinney (IR player on 2-year deal). The Giants’ granted pick could increase to a 5th for Aaron Ross, as he has a contract loaded with incentives which are unknown. Seattle signed Matt Flynn to a deal with a lot of unknown numbers as well, so Green Bay’s comp pick could jump to a 3rd.
I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed). Last year Atlanta received a net value pick that I could not explain, unless there is special consideration given to signing a player for a veteran minimum. Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 2 additional picks at the end, which follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.
Here are explanations of the players lost/signed for each team I’m projecting to receive a compensatory pick. I did not explain teams that did not get comp picks to save time, although I included Indianapolis, Denver, and New Orleans. If you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, please feel free to request an explanation in the comment section:
|Team||Players lost||Players signed|
|49ers||Josh Morgan (2 yr $11.5 million), Snyder (5 yr $17.5 million), Costanzo (2 yr $2 million), Madieu Williams (1 yr $890,000)||Manningham (2 yr $7.75 million)|
|Bengals||Rucker (5 yr $20.5 million), Livings (5 yr $19 million), Simpson (1 yr $2 million), McGlynn (2 yr $1.95 million), Caldwell (2 yr $1.8 million)||Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Green-Ellis (3 yr $9 million), Jamaal Anderson (2 yr $5.5 million)|
|Broncos||Bunkley (5 yr $25 million), Royal (3 yr $13.5 million), Fells (3 yr $5.25 million), Quinn (1 Yr $1 million), Haggan (1 yr $890,000), Larsen (2 yr $1.7 million)||Tracy Porter (1 Yr $4 million), Tamme (3 yr $9 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million), M. Adams (2 yr $2.4 million), Hanie (2 yr $2.5 million), Caldwell (2 yr $1.8 million)|
|Chiefs||Carr (5 yr $50.1 million), Orton (3 yr $10.5 million), McClain (3 yr $8.25 million)||Hillis (1 yr $2.8 million), Quinn (1 yr $1 million)|
|Colts||Garcon (5 yr $42.5 million), Saturday (2 yr $7.75 million), Tamme (3 yr $9 million), Jamaal Anderson (2 yr $5.5 million), Orlovsky (2 yr $2.5 million)||Satele (3 yr $10.8 million), Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), McKinney (2 yr $2 million), McGlynn (2 yr $1.95 million)|
|Dolphins||Langford (4 yr $24 million), Henne (2 yr $6.75 million)||Richard Marshall (3 yr $16 million)|
|Eagles||Juqua Parker (1 yr $3 million), Steve Smith (1 yr $2.5 million)||Demetress Bell (5 yr $34.5 million)|
|Falcons||Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million), Weems (3 yr $4.2 million), James Sanders (1 yr $910,000), Hayden (1 yr $890,000)||None|
|Giants||Ross (3 yr $9.75 – 15 million), Manningham (2 yr $7.75 million), Tollefson (2 yr $2.5 million)||Bennett (1 yr $2.5 million), Locklear (1 yr $890,000)|
|Lions||Eric Wright (5 yr $37.5 million), Stanton (1 yr $1.25 million)||None|
|Packers||Flynn (3 yr $19.5 – 26.5 million), Wells (4 yr $24 million)||Saturday (2 yr $7.75 million)|
|Raiders||Satele (3 yr $10.8 million), Michael Bush (4 yr $14 million), Jason Campbell (1 yr $3.5 million), Trevor Scott (1 yr $1.5 million)||Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Tollefson (2 yr $2.5 million)|
|Ravens||Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Jarret Johnson (4 yr $19 million), Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), Nakamura (3 yr $4.8 million), McKinney (2 yr $2 million)||Corey Graham (2 yr $3.7 million|
|Saints||Nicks (5 yr $47.5 million), Meachem (4 yr $26 million), Tracy Porter (1 yr $4 million), Dunbar (2 yr $3 million)||Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million), Bunkley (5 yr $25 million), Hawthorne (5 yr $19.5 million), Chamberlain (3 yr $4 million)|
|Seahawks||Carlson (5 yr $25 million), Hawthorne (5 yr $19.5 million), Whitehurst (2 yr $4 millon), Bigby (2 yr $2.5 million)||Flynn (3 yr $19.5 – 26.5 million), Jason Jones (1 yr $4.5 million)|
|Steelers||Gay (2 yr $3.2 million)||None|
|Texans||Mario Williams (6 yr $96 million), Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million)||Bradie James (1 yr $890,000), Donnie Jones (1 yr $890,000)|
|Titans||Finnegan (5 yr $50 million), Jason Jones (1 yr $4.5 million), William Hayes (1 yr $890,000)||None|
Other Random Comments:
- One player that counted, Drew Stanton, was traded from the team that signed him, the Jets, to Indianapolis. I gave Detroit a pick for losing him. Neither the Jets or Indianapolis had comp picks to lose, but that would have been an interesting situation to see. I can’t see comp pick rights moving as a result of trade.
- Indianapolis had three countable players leaving or signed go on IR, including two 2-year contract players, as well as the Stanton situation. All hell could break loose with my predictions for them for the second year in a row.
- Denver had some fun. I predicted nothing for them, but their activity included an IR player on a 2-year deal, a high veteran minimum player, and Caleb Hanie, who was cut one day and re-signed the next.
- Cincinnati had a wild free agency period. Jonathan Fanene, Frostee Rucker, and Nate Livings were signed away for surprisingly high contracts. But New England cut Fanene, and the Bengals spent money on Jason Allen and Jamaal Anderson. Allen has barely played, and Anderson is one of the IR players on a 2-year contract. They ended up with two 7th rounders after losing draft disappointments Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson.
- The highest contract player not to return a pick was Vincent Jackson, as San Diego signed two more players than they lost. I think they would like to hit the “return” button and take the 3rd round pick, as except for Atari Bigby their signings have vastly underperformed as per their contracts and in general. Robert Meachem may be traded for a round of drinks at the combine.
As you might imagine, the research involved in this kind of undertaking has a high degree of difficulty, so if you perceive any errors, please point them out in the comment section and we’ll take a closer look.