2013 NFL Compensatory Pick Projections

(Note by the editor: This research was conducted by Blogging the bEast’s official Compensatory Pick Expert, “ct17.”  C.T. did this for Blogging the bEast last year as well, and despite the difficulties of working with incomplete data as a result of the lockout shortened 2011 offseason, C.T. was very accurate. This year, the data at his disposal was more complete, so it is likely that he’ll be just as accurate or even more so this time around. Take it away, C.T.)…

As a disclaimer, I claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original.  I merely used AdamJT13’s posted guidelines as best as I could.  You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com.  You can also follow him on Twitter here.  If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning low minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed.  Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

It should be noted that although the NFL makes public the basic rules above, even the NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded.  They have to make assumption based upon past history, just as I have done.

Here are the projections. We’ll show the work behind the projections after the jump:

Team Round Player lost
Texans 3 Mario Williams
Chiefs 3 Brandon Carr
Titans 3 Cortland Finnegan
Lions 4 Eric Wright
Ravens 4 Ben Grubbs
Packers 4 Matt Flynn
Dolphins 4 Kendall Langford
49ers 4 Josh Morgan
Falcons 4 Curtis Lofton
Ravens 5 Jarret Johnson
Titans 5 Jason Jones
Texans 6 Jason Allen
Giants 6 Aaron Ross
Raiders 6 Samson Satele
Raiders 6 Michael Bush
Ravens 6 Cory Redding
Eagles 7 Steve Smith
Bengals 7 Jerome Simpson
Ravens 7 Tom Zbikowski
Steelers 7 William Gay
Seahawks 7 Charlie Whitehurst
Seahawks 7 Atari Bigby
Falcons 7 Eric Weems
Bengals 7 Mike McGlynn
49ers 7 Blake Costanzo
Lions 7 Drew Stanton
49ers 7 Madieu Williams
Falcons 7 James Sanders
Titans 7 William Hayes
Falcons 7 Kelvin Hayden
Jaguars 7 Additional pick
Chiefs 7 Additional pick

Last year with the shortened offseason a lot of contracts went unreported.  This year I only had that problem once.  Last year we also saw a new stricter standard to get a 3rd round pick.

I awarded 30 normal comp picks.  Last year the cutoff for considering players eligible was in the $800k-$900k range.  I counted several players that received 1-year contracts for $890k, but not Barry Richardson, who received a 1-year deal for $800k.  He ended up starting for St. Louis, so he may be counted, which would give Kansas City a 6th round pick (see below, for Orton, Quinn would then cancel out Richardson).  This is the tricky area because the location of the cutoff line could affect multiple picks.  Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco could lose 7th round picks, and Houston and the Giants could gain 6th round picks if particular older players making the veteran minimum are not counted.

Injured Reserve status may also affect some of these picks.  AdamJT13 was unable to explain why some IR players counted and some did not.  Here I did not count players on 1-year deals placed on IR before the start of the season, since logically these players could have been cut, eliminating them from comp pick consideration.  There were 4 players in this category, but they only affected 2 picks, potentially eliminating Miami’s 4th and the Giants’ 6th.  I counted players on IR that received 2-year deals, because the signing team just has a delayed benefit from the player.  If they are not counted, Cincinnati would gain a 7th round pick.  Players placed on IR during the season were counted, but this had no effect on the results.

The draft order was formed based upon contract amount and playing time.  AdamJT13 has a playing time equation, but I am just guessing here.  There are also unknown variables, as I still cannot explain Clint Session’s drop last year.  Baltimore reached the maximum of 4 comp picks, otherwise I would have given them an additional 7th round pick for losing Brandon McKinney (IR player on 2-year deal).  The Giants’ granted pick could increase to a 5th for Aaron Ross, as he has a contract loaded with incentives which are unknown.  Seattle signed Matt Flynn to a deal with a lot of unknown numbers as well, so Green Bay’s comp pick could jump to a 3rd.

I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed).  Last year Atlanta received a net value pick that I could not explain, unless there is special consideration given to signing a player for a veteran minimum.  Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 2 additional picks at the end, which follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.

Here are explanations of the players lost/signed for each team I’m projecting to receive a compensatory pick.  I did not explain teams that did not get comp picks to save time, although I included Indianapolis, Denver, and New Orleans.  If you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, please feel free to request an explanation in the comment section:

Team Players lost Players signed
49ers Josh Morgan (2 yr $11.5 million), Snyder (5 yr $17.5 million), Costanzo (2 yr $2 million), Madieu Williams (1 yr $890,000) Manningham (2 yr $7.75 million)
Bengals Rucker (5 yr $20.5 million), Livings (5 yr $19 million), Simpson (1 yr $2 million), McGlynn (2 yr $1.95 million), Caldwell (2 yr $1.8 million) Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Green-Ellis (3 yr $9 million), Jamaal Anderson (2 yr $5.5 million)
Broncos Bunkley (5 yr $25 million), Royal (3 yr $13.5 million), Fells (3 yr $5.25 million), Quinn (1 Yr $1 million), Haggan (1 yr $890,000), Larsen (2 yr $1.7 million) Tracy Porter (1 Yr $4 million), Tamme (3 yr $9 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million), M. Adams (2 yr $2.4 million), Hanie (2 yr $2.5 million), Caldwell (2 yr $1.8 million)
Chiefs Carr (5 yr $50.1 million), Orton (3 yr $10.5 million), McClain (3 yr $8.25 million) Hillis (1 yr $2.8 million), Quinn (1 yr $1 million)
Colts Garcon (5 yr $42.5 million), Saturday (2 yr $7.75 million), Tamme (3 yr $9 million), Jamaal Anderson (2 yr $5.5 million), Orlovsky (2 yr $2.5 million) Satele (3 yr $10.8 million), Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), McKinney (2 yr $2 million), McGlynn (2 yr $1.95 million)
Dolphins Langford (4 yr $24 million), Henne (2 yr $6.75 million) Richard Marshall (3 yr $16 million)
Eagles Juqua Parker (1 yr $3 million), Steve Smith (1 yr $2.5 million) Demetress Bell (5 yr $34.5 million)
Falcons Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million), Weems (3 yr $4.2 million), James Sanders (1 yr $910,000), Hayden (1 yr $890,000) None
Giants Ross (3 yr $9.75 – 15 million), Manningham (2 yr $7.75 million), Tollefson (2 yr $2.5 million) Bennett (1 yr $2.5 million), Locklear (1 yr $890,000)
Lions Eric Wright (5 yr $37.5 million), Stanton (1 yr $1.25 million) None
Packers Flynn (3 yr $19.5 – 26.5 million), Wells (4 yr $24 million) Saturday (2 yr $7.75 million)
Raiders Satele (3 yr $10.8 million), Michael Bush (4 yr $14 million), Jason Campbell (1 yr $3.5 million), Trevor Scott (1 yr $1.5 million) Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Tollefson (2 yr $2.5 million)
Ravens Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Jarret Johnson (4 yr $19 million), Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), Nakamura (3 yr $4.8 million), McKinney (2 yr $2 million) Corey Graham (2 yr $3.7 million
Saints Nicks (5 yr $47.5 million), Meachem (4 yr $26 million), Tracy Porter (1 yr $4 million), Dunbar (2 yr $3 million) Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million), Bunkley (5 yr $25 million), Hawthorne (5 yr $19.5 million), Chamberlain (3 yr $4 million)
Seahawks Carlson (5 yr $25 million), Hawthorne (5 yr $19.5 million), Whitehurst (2 yr $4 millon), Bigby (2 yr $2.5 million) Flynn (3 yr $19.5 – 26.5 million), Jason Jones (1 yr $4.5 million)
Steelers Gay (2 yr $3.2 million) None
Texans Mario Williams (6 yr $96 million), Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million) Bradie James (1 yr $890,000), Donnie Jones (1 yr $890,000)
Titans Finnegan (5 yr $50 million), Jason Jones (1 yr $4.5 million), William Hayes (1 yr $890,000) None

Other Random Comments:

  • One player that counted, Drew Stanton, was traded from the team that signed him, the Jets, to Indianapolis.  I gave Detroit a pick for losing him.  Neither the Jets or Indianapolis had comp picks to lose, but that would have been an interesting situation to see.  I can’t see comp pick rights moving as a result of trade.
  • Indianapolis had three countable players leaving or signed go on IR, including two 2-year contract players, as well as the Stanton situation.  All hell could break loose with my predictions for them for the second year in a row.
  • Denver had some fun.  I predicted nothing for them, but their activity included an IR player on a 2-year deal, a high veteran minimum player, and Caleb Hanie, who was cut one day and re-signed the next.
  • Cincinnati had a wild free agency period.  Jonathan Fanene, Frostee Rucker, and Nate Livings were signed away for surprisingly high contracts.  But New England cut Fanene, and the Bengals spent money on Jason Allen and Jamaal Anderson.  Allen has barely played, and Anderson is one of the IR players on a 2-year contract.  They ended up with two 7th rounders after losing draft disappointments Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson.
  • The highest contract player not to return a pick was Vincent Jackson, as San Diego signed two more players than they lost.  I think they would like to hit the “return” button and take the 3rd round pick, as except for Atari Bigby their signings have vastly underperformed as per their contracts and in general.  Robert Meachem may be traded for a round of drinks at the combine.

As you might imagine, the research involved in this kind of undertaking has a high degree of difficulty, so if you perceive any errors, please point them out in the comment section and we’ll take a closer look.

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43 Comments

  1. [...] top of that, the team may very well get a third- and seventh-round compensation pick according to Blogging the Beast. Will all these picks, the Chiefs seemed poised to add not only [...]

  2. [...] Compensatory Pick Projections Not official, but as explained, projections seem fact based. 2013 NFL Compensatory Pick Projections – Blogging the bEast I found the below quote at the bottom of the blog. "Robert Meachem may be traded for a round [...]

  3. Cio says:

    don’t the Chiefs get penalized for signing Stanford Routt, even though they cut him?

    1. No. The Raiders cut Routt before he signed with KC, so he does not qualify under the formula.

  4. mark says:

    what about vincent jackson. why doesnt SD get one

  5. Russell Wing says:

    Could you go into a bit more detail about the Texans? 3rd round pick for Mario seems a given. A bit confused how you rate Allen as worthy of a 6th, but Dreesen – whose contact was similar and Brisiel – whose contract was much bigger, warrant no additional picks? I know they signed Bradie James and Donnie Jones, but each of them got one year deals at less than a million. Shouldn’t the Texans be looking at a 4th or 5th for Brisiel and a 6th or 7th for Dreesen?

    1. ct17 says:

      Signed players cancel out lost players, so Bradie James does knock out Dreesen, and Jones knocks out Brisiel, because there are no lower-salaried players to knock out.

      In the past, players making 890k have counted. Last year, the only player in that price range was Reggie Kelly, signed by Atlanta, and he counted.

      However, the league is not reliable with counting players under $1 million, so it is possible that Brisiel and/or Dreesen will get you picks, should be a 5 or 6 for Brisiel and a 6 for Dreesen, Dreesen would be knocked out first

  6. Ted C. says:

    What about Jahvid Best for the lions on injured reserve ,sadly , Permanently . Do u think Lions get any comp picks for that situation ?
    TC

    1. Oh oh! I got this one!

      No, Ted.

  7. [...] A blogger who specializes in the draft says the Giants may be in line for a compensatory pick this April due to the defection of CB Aaron Ross to Jacksonville last season READ [...]

  8. [...] Compensatory picks for the 2013 NFL Draft won’t be announced for another couple months, but the expectation right now is for the Detroit Lions to get at least one. It actually looks like they could get two additional selections based on Blogging the Beast’s compensatory pick projection. [...]

  9. BBI says:

    Hi ct,
    First time, long time.
    Just wanted to say <3 <3

    Also, question. If suppose for the Giants, we DID have to count Shaun Rogers (I'm assuming that's the dude from this quote):

    "Here I did not count players on 1-year deals placed on IR before the start of the season, since logically these players could have been cut, eliminating them from comp pick consideration. There were 4 players in this category, but they only affected 2 picks, potentially eliminating Miami’s 4th and the Giants’ 6th."

    If that is the case, would the Giants get a 7th as a "net value pick" because of the difference in contract statuses (I mean, two guys at the vet min, and 'Tellus at 2.5 vs Mario and Ross getting decent contracts)?

    1. ct17 says:

      I’m 50/50 on that one. It used to be that the differences in contracts had to be extreme. I roughly make the difference in total average salaries to be 9 vs 4.5, which is not close but not unreasonably far away. However, in the last two years I have been surprised by some of the net value picks granted. My thought is that they may be compensating teams that are signing old vets at their high required minimum salary so as to lessen the potential punative blow of signing them. What they should be doing to help old guys stay in the league is exempting all minimum contracts from comp pick calculations.

      1. BBI says:

        That would definitely make sense to just have exemptions for everyone under that contract situation. So basically its one of those gray areas where we’re not sure what the cut off is for the value difference or if there are special considerations in place for the older vets.

        1. ct17 says:

          The teams themselves do not even know the contract cut-off amounts or the net value calculations. Or the salary ranges for rounds. They are only given the basic rules that we know. The NFL provides no explanations when picks are announced.

          1. EJAAY says:

            What about Dave Tollefson, Devin Thomas and Jonathan Goff?

            1. ct17 says:

              Tollefson was up there. Goff was cut by the Redskins, Thomas signed a minimum contract then retired.

  10. MrClean says:

    Why no comp pick to Arizona for losing Richard Marshall at 3 yrs/16 million? Granted he only played 4 games, but wouldn’t he still fall under the delayed benefit for Miami that you referred to with some players on 2 yr deals going onto IR?

    1. ct17 says:

      Marshall is the only guy they lost. They signed Snyder, Gay, and James Sanders.

      1. MrClean says:

        Thank you. They get left out by the net loss/gain part of it then.

  11. DK says:

    Thanks for the breakdown. Is there a reason why the Jacoby Jones signing doesn’t count for the Texans (-) and Ravens (+)?

    1. ct17 says:

      Jones was cut by Houston.

      1. DK says:

        Ah, thanks. I didn’t remember him getting cut.

  12. [...] like I thought it was. But these guys are pretty good regardless and it shouldnt be too far off 2013 NFL Compensatory Pick Projections – Blogging the bEast Reply With [...]

  13. freemanator says:

    Hi ct17,

    Can you give me the break down for the New England Patriots please?

    Also a couple of questions on the methodology. Are FAs signed from other teams, and then cut before the season counted? Do you have to lose more FAs than you sign to see any picks, even if you lose say 5 studs, and sign 5 scrubs?

    Thanks

    1. The 5 studs / 5 scrubs concept is called a “Net value pick,” which CT describes a little bit in the post regarding a pick awarded to Atlanta last year, but I’ll allow him to answer your question more completely.

    2. ct17 says:

      Patriots were not even close. Lost Green-Ellis and Anderson the DE. Signed Gregory, Fells, Trevor Scott, Larsen, and Lloyd.

      You need to lose more players than signed to get a regular comp pick. However, if the players you lost signed for considerably more money than the ones you signed, you get a “net value” pick, which can only be a 7th rounder, and is slotted after the regular 7th round comp picks. The only one I could see in that situation this year is Indy, and if they get one, based on the past years as well it will be a sign that the net value standards have loosened.

  14. Lionhawk says:

    Do RFA who are not tendered count. Because it affects Detroits 7th for Stanton if it does?

    Jacob Lacey was signed by Detroit, I 1st thought he was cut, but he just was not tendered according to what I can find. I have seen this called both ways. Do you know which way is right?

    1. ct17 says:

      If a RFA is not tendered, he does not count in the comp pick equation. The logic behind it is that when you lose a UFA, you are getting compensated for someone that you were unable to keep. But with a RFA, you had the opportunity to keep them with a tender, so in effect the failure to tender them is similar to a cut.

      1. Lionhawk says:

        Ok then, I assume then since Leonard Davis is not a Qualifying FA for the Lions because the signing date is too late. He was right on the camp opening line. Signed by 49ers from Lions on or around camp cutoff July 26th for 890K?

        1. ct17 says:

          Yes. You have to play a full season for a team for them to be compensated for losing you. Same on the other end, if you lose a player who is then cut and you can sign back, you will not get a comp pick for the temporary loss.

  15. Steve says:

    You say all hell could break lose for the Colts? How so? Also, did you consider the losses of Pollack, Ojinnaka, Wheeler, Sims, Orlovsky, Richards and Brown? I’m not sure if they all qualify but I feel like several of them should. I was a little disappointed that Garçon didn’t get the Colts a pick. He signed for 8.5M annually and the highest UFA the Colts signed was a little over 3M.

    1. ct17 says:

      Oooh, a test! Orlovsky was listed up there. Pollack, Wheeler, Richards got minimum deals under 800k, and the two OL were IR’d for the year, one during the season.Ojinnaka and Sims don’t count because they bounced from team to team. Brown was not tendered. Giants fans are thankful for that.

      Colts have a range of issues that could upset the prediction, including all of the players on IR with different stories behind them, and the fact that they traded for Stanton, a counted player. Last year they signed Kerry Collins, a 10-year vet, so the issue was whether he cancelled out a signed player based upon his contract or the league-imposed 5th round maximum value for a 10-year vet. First time situation.

      1. dbcouver says:

        Well done CT! Thanks for going to the trouble to predict these. I’m sure they’ll be pretty much on target. last year was great. I know how much work goes into this.

  16. [...] Jimmy Bama has a post up where he projects Comp picks for the NFL teams.  I’d love to tell you the Eagles will get an extra couple of 1st and 2nd rounders, but that would be a slight exaggeration. [...]

  17. Average Joseph says:

    Shouldn’t the Eagles get an extra pick since Demetress Bell really isn’t an NFL player? Just askin’.

    Just An Average Joseph

    1. I still love that you have a signoff on every comment.

  18. BigEFly says:

    Forgot Brown going to and playing for the Chargers. Actually got more playing time than Demetris Bell did.

  19. Imp says:

    Matt Flynn sat on the bench for the entire year and Packers will get either a 4th or 3rd round pick for it. Talk about lucky.

  20. Skinsational says:

    Great work, CT.

  21. deg0ey says:

    For SD; it always amazes me that teams don’t consider that at the beginning of the season. I mean, I get that you want to field the best team you can in any given year, but for a team that was 8-8 in the previous season, they must’ve figured that a 28 year old receiver wasn’t gonna put them over the top.

    1. ct17 says:

      More than any other GM, AJ Smith contributed to his own downfall. OK, Pioli is in the same category. Smith thought his #1 pass rusher and #1 WR were replaceable, then panicked and spent money on a bunch of WRs that did not pan out. Roscoe Parrish the worst example.

      In some ways both Pioli and Smith tried to emulate Belichick but failed.

      1. Hey hey, there he is.

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