Osi Umenyiora to Baltimore (sort of) makes sense for the Ravens in 2012, but not in 2013 and beyond

Terrell Suggs is done for the season.  Ruptured Achilles.  That’s the 2nd ruptured Achilles that claimed the season of a bona fide star player this offseason, with the first being Jason Peters.  What do we do when a player is lost for the season?  We put on our thinking caps.  And when we put on our thinking caps, the following fairly obvious train of thought ensues:

  • T-Sizzle will be back in 2013. Don't expect the Ravens to panic away a high draft pick.

    Terrell Suggs is a great pass rusher.

  • Osi Umenyiora is a great pass rusher.
  • Take away Suggs and the Ravens don’t really have many good pass rushers left.
  • Take away Osi and the Giants still do have plenty of good pass rushers.
  • Osi Umenyiora is unhappy in NY.
  • The Giants should trade Umenyiora to the Ravens.

Predictably, it didn’t take long for someone (Clark Judge of CBS) to think of exactly that and put it out there.

I don’t see it.  As Judge mentions, Umenyiora is in the final year of his deal, and turns 31 in November.  In Judge’s opinion, that’s what makes him expendable from the Giants’ point of view.  Not mentioned is that those two factors are the exact reason it makes him unappealing to other teams that might consider dealing for him.

If you’re another GM, you almost have to view Umenyiora as an expensive free agent.  Let’s say for example that the seemingly reasonable asking price is a 2nd round pick.  If you’re willing to part with a pick that high, you’re almost certainly going to be making that deal with the thought in mind that you’re going to give Umenyiora a long term deal.  There’s no way you give up a 2 for a 1-year rental.  Giving Osi a long term deal is going to cost a lot of money.  In fact, Umenyiora already has his eyes on the deals a couple other players recently received:

Umenyiora is looking for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts recently signed by Philadelphia’s Trent Cole and Indianapolis’ Robert Mathis.

Trent Cole’s deal: 3/13/2012: Signed a six-year, $59.3 million contract. The deal contains $14.5 million guaranteed, including an $8 million signing bonus and all of Cole’s 2012 and 2013 base salaries. 2012: $3 million, 2013: $3.5 million, 2014: $5 million, 2015: $10 million, 2016: $10.9 million, 2017: $13.9 million, 2018: Free Agent

Robert Mathis’ deal: 3/5/2012: Signed a four-year, $36 million contract.

Sure, if you’re the Ravens, trading for Umenyiora makes sense… in 2012.

But in 2013, Terrell Suggs will be back.  Plus, the Ravens just a few days ago used their first pick on another pass rusher, Courtney Upshaw. That will of course be his 2nd year in the NFL, and by then, you’re hoping for a productive starter. If you’re the Ravens, are you going to sign a 31 year old Umenyiora to a monster deal, taking snaps away from your highly drafted 2nd year pass rusher for the foreseeable future, AND give up a two in the process?  That’s a panic move.  The Ravens don’t make panic moves.

Oh, and also, the Ravens are only about $1.6 million under the cap.  Not happening.

23 Comments

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  5. I agree says:

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  6. rage114 says:

    I don’t think signing Umenyiora is as big a deal as some think.

    Upshaw is a rookie. Thinking he would be able to repalce Suggs in two years is counting your chicks before they hatch. He could be that good. Or he could be like Graham.

    And it is reasonable to think that Suggs won’t be nearly as explosive next year (only a year from injury) as he was in the past.

    As a result, Umenyiora may actually be more attractive to the Ravens because he represents a stop gap for this year AND an insurance policy for next year. With Umenyiora, they don’t have to gamble in FA next year or the draft in case one or both of the above scenarios don’t work out.

  7. Mark Sitko says:

    Jimmy! A 2nd rounder for Osi – are you crazy? No one would ever pay that – dude doesn’t even start! I could see the Giants taking a 5th for him…and if that is the price who would object?

    1. brisulph says:

      Giants want a 2nd for him, or they are quite content to just let him play out his contract, and possibly get some compensation pick value after he leaves and signs a contract elsewhere. He is a very useful piece, one that will have to go out this year and perform well to get that monster contract he wants.

    2. And despite not starting, he had 12.5 sacks in 13 games.

      1. brisulph says:

        Agreed, his pass rushing, and wearing junior pads are his specialties. Run stopping, insulting Eagles RBs, and not complaining are definite deficiencies in his game.

        1. Ha, agree on all counts.

    3. BBI says:

      He’d start on almost every team in this league. Probably not the Giants, Eagles, or Steelers, but everywhere else? Yeah…he would.

      Not his fault he has Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in front of him.

  8. Immynimmy says:

    Damn Jimmy, there are 3 spammers in these comments.

  9. Steve says:

    Man Jimmy,

    The spammers come out early!

  10. Keith Petres says:

    So the Ravens won’t trade for Osi because the combination of (1) the cost of the trade, and (2) the cost of the player’s contract, is too high? Definitely makes sense.

    PS That’s why the Eagles didn’t get fleeced in the Asante trade. #2, Asante’s cost, was too high. He was already signed for top-tier free agent money. If he’d been cut by the Eagles and put on the open market he wouldn’t have been able to sign for hardly any more than the Eagles were going to pay him. That didn’t leave much room for #1, the cost of the trade.

    PPS That’s also why the Cardinals DID get fleeced by the Eagles when they traded for Kevin Kolb. Not only did they sign Kolb to nearly full value on #2, i.e., if Kolb had been an unrestricted free agent he wouldn’t have gotten much more, but the Cardinals also traded full value on #1 by giving up DRC (who was and still is on his underpaying rookie contract) and a 2nd round pick. In effect, the Cardinals paid for Kolb twice.

    1. Jimmy Kempski says:

      You’re omitting a major element of the Asante trade… that the Falcons got him for a 7. You won’t be seeing the Giants trade Osi for a 7.

      1. Keith Petres says:

        Of course the Giants won’t trade Osi for a 7. Osi is currently under a contract that vastly underpays him, which is the opposite of the situation Asante was in.

        So if the Giants don’t trade Osi then they get a Pro Bowler (Osi) for peanuts, whereas if the Eagles didn’t trade Asante then they get a Pro Bowler (Asante) for a Pro Bowler’s salary.

        To put it another way, Asante’s salary was so high there was no way he could outplay his contract; so Asante’s marginal value to the Eagles (and the Falcons) was negligible. Osi’s salary is so low that his marginal value to the Giants is huge, so it will take a lot of compensation to make the Giants want to take trade him.

        1. ArthuroMolenda says:

          How is Umenyiora vastly underpaid ?

          His salary is an average of $6M per year since 2006. He’s been a top rusher once every two year during this time. The rest of the time he was either injured, average or a situationnal player.
          He decided to sign a extension instead of waiting to be a FA, he chose security, he got paid less. It doesn’t mean is vastly underpaid.

          I can’t find any contract extension numbers for top pass rushers (remember, he is not a top DE!) but I don’t think it’s much more than $6M per year.

          1. peterhad313 says:

            It was frontloaded so therefore, this year is the cheapest. He is only 4.6, which is a deal, especially considering he thinks he deserves top 5 money. He probally would get at least 9 mil on the open market, because he is better then Matthis IMHO. So the Giants getting him for half that is a steal.

            1. ArthuroMolenda says:

              Or Mathis got way overpaid.

            2. slandog says:

              Well the years he was injured Osi was vastly overpaid. He’s injured quite a bit or gets a lot of dings, etc. When he plays he is good, but he doesn’t deserve Cole money at all, Cole is never off the field and is vastly under rated as a pass rusher and a run stopper.

              4.6 this year is a good deal for Osi, maybe be a bit low but it’s not crazy low at all. McCoy is vastly underpaid, Osi not so much.

  11. bula says:

    darryl tapp!!!

  12. ct17 says:

    If the Ravens need cap room, we’ll take Ray Rice off their hands.

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