If Eagles truly are taking whatever they can get for Asante Samuel, the Redskins should be all over him

According to Pro Football Talk, the Eagles are willing to take whatever they can get for Asante Samuel.

I’m not sure I quite buy that (at least that they’re so motivated to do so sooner than later) but here’s what I wrote about Asante Samuel a few weeks ago (this was the post that Samuel tweeted to everyone and their mother on Easter):

According to Football Outsiders, Samuel was only thrown at 36 times the entire 2010 season.  He had a “success rate” of 78%, which was by far and away the best in the NFL.  For quick reference, FO defines “success rate” as “the percentage of passes that don’t manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down.”  That was the best in the NFL.  Second best?  A name you might know… Darrelle Revis, at 70%.

As far as yards per pass attempt, Samuel gave up a paltry 3.2 yards per pass, which again, was the best in the NFL.  Second best? Another name you probably recognize… Antoine Winfield, with 4.2 yards per attempt.  To put 3.2 yards per attempt in perspective.  Aaron Rodgers averaged a ridiculous 9.25 yards per attempt this past year.  That was the best in the league.  The bottom 4 QB’s in the NFL were Curtis Painter (6.34), Sam Bradford (6.06), Colt McCoy (5.90), and Blaine Gabbert (5.36).

But the most amazing part of Samuel’s 2010 season was that despite only being thrown at 36 times, he somehow intercepted 7 passes.  That’s incredible.

Football Outsiders has yet to put out their 2011 CB charting stats, but they did give a sneak peek through Week 13 of the 2011 season.  Despite a new defensive scheme that didn’t quite cater to Samuel’s skill set, the numbers were more of the same.  He was 5th in “success rate” at 67%, and his yards per pass attempt were again extremely low at 4.5 yards per attempt (3rd in the NFL).  Those stats don’t include Samuel’s final two games of the season against the Jets and Dolphins, games in which the opposing QB’s and WR’s had miserable Sunday afternoons.

And here’s what I wrote in a similar post about DeAngelo Hall a couple weeks ago, using those same Football Outsiders metrics:

In 2010, DeAngelo Hall had the 2nd worst “success rate” in the NFL at 39%.  He also gave up the 3rd most yards per target in the NFL (10.5), and the 3rd worst yards after catch (5.8).

2011 was actually worse.  Through 12 games on the 2011 season (Football Outsides hasn’t yet published their full-season findings), Hall was 3rd worst in the NFL in success rate (36%) and 2nd worst in yards per target (11.1 yards).  Missing in action were the big plays, as he managed just 3 INT’s (his lowest total since his rookie season in 2004) and 1 FF.

The hangup for Samuel is that you’d be taking on a player that’s 31 years old who is going to make almost $10 million in 2012.  However, DeAngelo Hall is going to cost $6.5 million against the cap in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $9.5 million in 2014.  The Skins can get out of the contract with very little penalty whenever they’d like.

According to Aaron Wilson of FOX Sports, the Skins have a little under $5 million of cap space.  The difference of money from DeAngelo Hall to Asante Samuel would fit, and the Skins would be getting a massive upgrade in a secondary that looks like it could be a disaster in 2012.  Is that upgrade worth a 5th or 6th round pick, or perhaps even slightly more if the Eagles are looking for a premium by trading him within the division?  In my opinion, there’s no question.

h/t to my boy @UKRedskin1.


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  3. WeNeedLinemen says:

    I think disaster is a bit strong. It’s not a good secondary but it wasn’t a disasterous one last year. There is certainly a huge amount of room for improvement, and replacing Hall with Samuel would be provide a significant upgrade but there are several reasons why I cannot see this happening.

    First, I really cannot see the Eagles doing the ‘Skins this much of a favour. Second, I can’t help but think there must be something that Hall had put into his contract when he renegotiated that is protecting him now. At the time the renegotiation was announced, it seemed like a great move for the team and one that ensured that Hall would get cut this year. It looked like an incredibly dumb move on Hall’s part. Sure, he got his guaranteed money up front, but it also exposed the tail-end of the contract.

    So, I strongly suspect dumping Hall and acquiring Samuel isn’t going to happen. That said, I don’t see the ‘Skins secondary being any worse than last year, in fact I think it will be better.

    Who’ve we lost: Landry, Atogwe and possibly Westbrook. Landry is a two-time Pro Bowl alternate who struggled in pass coverage and has injury issues. He has been replaced by Meriweather a two-time Pro-Bowler. Both have reputations for being free-lancers, but Meriweather has 3-times the number of interceptions from doing it.

    Atogwe missed a lot of games last year and managed to look injured even when he wasn’t. Perhaps the best sign that he was surplus to requirements came from DeSean Jackson, who jogged around Atogwe with such ease that even Jackson seemed shocked by it. It was almost as though it was impossible for Jackson to move slowly enough to even taunt Atogwe properly.

    Towards the end of last year Atogwe was being beaten out by Reed Doughty, who is exactly the sort of physical talent you need on the team, as a coaching intern. I find it hard to believe that one out of: Tanard Jackson (suspension and injury), Madieu Williams (signs of decline, age/got paid) and Cedric Griffin (never played the position) wont perform better than Atogwe, despite the problems they bring with them.

    Westbrook was primarily a special teamer who took Leigh Torrence’s roster spot a few years ago, and now looks set to hand it right back, that is if they don’t both get beaten out by Brandyn Thompson.

    Furthermore, both Dejon Gomes and Thompson should be better in their second season. Josh Wilson should also be more settled, after struggling during the first part of last year. Whilst, I cannot see the secondary being anything but the weak point in the defense this year, it should be better than it was last year.

  4. Toosy_13 says:

    That $5mill of Cap Space is what is going into signing the rookies… So the Redskins won’t be giving it away.

    1. Rookies don’t begin to sign contracts until months after the draft. All kinds of things the Skins can do (restructuring either Samuel’s deal or other players’ deals) to make it work, and plenty of time to do it.

      1. WeNeedLinemen says:

        I thought all rookies were immeadiately tendered to a rookie minimum base salary, with regards to salary cap accounting, as soon as they were drafted. That figure then being replaced with the actual contract numbers when it was signed.

        I should imagine that nearly every roster will have 51 players being paid more than that, so it shouldn’t have an impact, but it might be an issue.

        I think the more significant issue will be the cap penalty. If it doens’t get overturned on appeal, this year shouldn’t be too bad but things might get tight next year. They may well be looking to keep cap space this year so that they can roll it into next year.

        1. “I should imagine that nearly every roster will have 51 players being paid more than that, so it shouldn’t have an impact”


  5. Trueblue63 says:

    Isn’t the problem that everyone knows that Samuel is likely to get cut? The trade isn’t for Samuel it’s for the right to renegotiate with Samuel. I’m guessing that Samuel isn’t making it easy, why should he? He will benefit from getting cut.

    Even if they get a 7th round pick, if their goal is to get his contract off the books, it’s a win.

    1. I disagree that it’s a win for the Eagles just by getting him off the books. They are more than $12 million under the cap. They have the flexibility to do whatever they want (like extend LeSean McCoy) whether Asante is still on the team or not.

      Personally, if I’m the Eagles, I’d be in no rush whatsoever to unload him for a 2012 pick. They already have 9 picks in 2012. May as well just hang on and hope a team gets desperate. That’s better than getting a something like a 6 in return, in my opinion.

      1. BryanH says:

        Finally, a voice of reason

      2. LShady says:

        hmm… were you typing the other article then decide to copy paste it here, or did u type this then decide to use it in your article

      3. Trueblue63 says:

        That’s why I said if its their goal to shed his contract

        But the free agent market for a CB of his caliber won’t bring much of a reduction from his current salary. I’d assume he wouldn’t take a pay cut just to help the Eagles out (he isn’t brain damaged). But I agree that they should wait, just one injury could change the landscape entirely.

  6. KJ Brophy says:

    I don’t think that would be the case for inside the division, if them, the Giants, or the Cowboys called I wouldn’t be surprised if the asking price was still a 3rd rounder

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