Grading our compensatory pick projections

Today, the NFL awarded compensatory picks for teams losing players in free agency the previous season.  Here’s the list of picks:

  • Raiders – 3, 4, 5
  • Vikings – 4, 4
  • Ravens – 4, 5
  • Giants – 4
  • Packers – 4, 4, 7, 7
  • Cowboys – 4
  • Colts, 5, 6, 7
  • Jets – 6, 6, 7, 7
  • Browns – 6, 6, 7, 7
  • Panthers – 6
  • Steelers – 7, 7, 7
  • Falcons – 7
  • Chargers – 7
  • Bills – 7
  • Rams – 7

We predicted (or rather our compensatory pick expert ct17 predicted) the compensatory picks this year, and he did great.  Our success rate after the jump:

Team Round Comment
Raiders 3 Correct
Vikings 3 They got a 4, not a 3.
Raiders 4 Correct
Packers 4 Correct
Packers 4 Correct
Vikings 4 Correct
Ravens 4 Correct
Cowboys 4 Correct
Colts 4 or 6 They got a 5. Looks like they split it down the middle.
Raiders 4 or 5 Correct. They got a 5.
Giants 5 or 6  
Jets 5 or 6 Correct. They got a 6.
Browns 6 Correct
Browns 6 Correct
Falcons 6 They got a 7, not a 6.
Jets 6 Correct
Jets 7 They got a 6, not a 7
Jets 7 Correct
Panthers 7 They got a 6, not a 7
Steelers 7 Correct
Steelers 7 Correct
Giants 7  
Packers 7 Correct
Packers 7 Correct
Browns 7 Correct
Browns 7 Correct
Colts 7 Correct
Rams 7 Correct
Vikings 7  
Buccaneers 7  
Redskins 7  
Jaguars 7

It appears that we accurately predicted (or came within a round of) 26 of 32 picks.  Not bad.  The NFL awarded the Giants a 4, not a 5 an a 7 as we predicted, and they also awarded 7th round picks to the Bills, Chargers, Steelers, Falcons, which we did not see.  We awarded those picks instead to the teams at the top of the draft as if it were an 8th round.

But all in all, great job.  We be journalizin’, bitches.  Take a bow, CT.


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  4. Dirk says:

    Do you think injuries deleted out K.Collins, or do you think it was the fact that he is a 10-yr vet? (Wondering how 10-yr vet status affects the teams that sign them as far as canceling FA losses, such as the GBP signing 10-yr vet J.Saturday for 2013 comp picks.) Thanks!

    1. Dirk says:

      Also, Bob Sanders was cut, not a free agent loss, correct?

      1. ct17 says:

        Yes, Sanders was cut, that had been something I had already fixed.

        There is a 10-year vet rule. The rule is that you cannot get more than a 5th-round pick in return, no matter the contract signed. This was acknowledged by the NFL when the Jets signed Alan Faneca. However, the NFL did not report Kerry Collins as an eligible player, and neither Sessions or Johnson were cancelled out, their only eligible players.

        Maybe they did not count Collins because of the impact his high salary would have, and maybe as an alternative they lowered the picks of Sessions and Johnson, because I cannot explain them otherwise. But since the NFL does not explain themselves, we will never know.

      2. Arie says:

        The thing about trying to pick the draft, is once you get one one wrong, its very hard to keep up and get many more eocrrct. when the jets traded up, and the browns traded down, you could probably throw all of your picks away because you never knew when the browns were going to stop trading, and few had the jets moving up.

  5. ct17 says:

    Here’s what happened:

    As was rumored, they made it harder to get high comp picks. They raised the lower end of the ranges for the 3rd and 4th round picks. This really helped the Giants (Baas no longer cancelled Cofield).

    Injuries were strongly considered this year. In the past this went back and forth, but most of the times did not matter strongly. This deleted Kerry Collins and Bob Sanders from consideration and weakened Gallery.

    Several players with minimum salaries were counted. Donte Stallworth, Steve Weatherford, Dmitri Patterson, Floyd Womack, Keyaron Fox, Reggie Kelly. All but Stallworth I predicted could be problems. Maybe these guys had unreported bonuses?

    Atlanta, Buffalo, and San Diego got 7ths for net value difference between contracts. Except Atlanta’s contracts are exactly equal. I have no idea what happened here.

    Indianapolis had Session dropped to a 5th (5.8 mil/yr, where Bowen at 5.5/yr gave Dallas a 4th), and Charlie Johnson got them a low 6th considering he had one of the higher contracts in the 6th round group.

    Abram Elam and Cullen Jenkins were also listed low for their rounds. Dawan Landry went higher than expected in his round. No idea why – injuries and snap counts do not affect them.

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