Since we’re in “Combine season,” I thought we’d take a look at a metric that heavily utilizes Combine data. SackSEER, in case you’re unfamiliar, is a model introduced by Football Outsiders that projects 5-year sack totals of highly drafted 4-3 DE’s and 3-4 OLB’s, based on 4 metrics:
- Vertical leap from the Combine
- Short shuttle time from the Combine
- Per-game sack productivity in college
- Missed games of NCAA eligibility
I think just about any knowledgeable football fan that is familiar with Football Outsiders is generally very complimentary of the work they do (as they should be), but SackSEER has its fans and detractors. The model was formed from data collected prior to the 2010 season and was first introduced in 2010. Therefore, the model pre-2010 is understandably extremely successful. Its fans point to the pre-2010 success. Its detractors feel that predicting a player’s future in the NFL based on a couple jumps and a few passes through some cones at the Combine is a little ridiculous. It also is a pure data model that ignores things like watching game tape.
I should probably just be upfront and note that I’m not a fan, and often feel that every Tom, Dick, and Harry is trying to come up with “the new formula.” The 26-27-60 QB theory kind of started it, and now people are reaching to find a similar formula. I see SackSEER as one of those reaches. Anyway, here were SackSEER’s projections from last year:
|Player||SackSEER 5-year projection||Rookie season sacks||Rookie season projected over 5 years|
2010 draftees after the jump…
|Player||SackSEER 5-year projection||First 2 seasons sack total||First 2 seasons projected over 5 years|
So far, SackSEER seems to have a beat on Justin Houston. If Derrick Morgan, Brandon Graham, and Everson Griffen begin to produce, they might come reasonably close to SackSEER’s projected numbers. But mostly, SackSEER is missing so far since its 2010 introduction… and pretty wildly at that.