First, let’s just show the projections. Then, for anyone that’s interested in seeing some more of the work behind it, you can continue to read.
|Team||Round||Player lost||Qualifying players invlved|
|Raiders||3||Nnamdi Asomugha||The Raiders lost Robert Gallery (3 yr $15 million), Zach Miller (5 yr $34 million), Thomas Howard (2 yr $6.5 million), Nnamdi Asomugha (5 yr $60 million), and Bruce Gradkowski. They signed Stephon Heyer (1 yr $1.7 million) and Kevin Boss (4 yr $16 million). They should get comp picks for Asomugha, Miller, and Gallery.|
|Vikings||3||Sidney Rice||The Vikings lost Tarvaris Jackson (2 yr $8 million), Sidney Rice (5 yr $41 million), Ray Edwards (5 yr $30 million), and Ben Leber (1 yr $1.2 million). They signed Charlie Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million), Remi Ayodele (3 yr $9 million). They should get comp picks for Rice and Edwards.|
|Raiders||3 or 4||Zach Miller||See Raiders explanation above|
|Packers||4||Cullen Jenkins||The Packers lost Daryn Colledge (5 yr $27.5 million), Jason Spitz (3 yr $5.25 million), Korey Hall (2 yr $2 million), Brandon Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million),and Cullen Jenkins (5 yr $30.4 million). They signed nobody that would qualify for a comp pick. The Packers are likely to get 4 compensatory picks, which is the maximum number.|
|Packers||4||Daryn Colledge||See Packers explanation above.|
|Vikings||4||Ray Edwards||See Vikings explanation above|
|Ravens||4||Dawan Landry||The Ravens lost LaRon McClain (1 yr $1.5 million), Chris Chester (4 yr $16 million), Josh Wilson (3 yr $13.5 million), and Dawan Landry (5 yr $27.5 million). They signed Vonta Leach (3 yr $11 million), Cary Williams (2 yr $2.6 million), and Bernard Pollard (2 yr $2.75 million). They’ll likely get a comp pick for losing Landry.|
|Cowboys||4||Stephen Bowen||The Cowboys lost Sam Hurd (3 yr $5.15 million) and Stephen Bowen (5 yr $27.5 million). They signed Abram Elam (1 yr $2.5 million). They should get a comp pick for Bowen.|
|Colts||4||Clint Session||The Colts lost Clint Session (5 yr $29 million) and Charlie Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million). They signed Kerry Collins (2 yr $14 million). An interesting situation comes into play with Indianapolis. It only came to light a few years ago that compensation for 10-year veterans will not exceed a 5th round pick regardless of salary. However, it appears to be unknown whether the salary, or the adjusted 5th round pick, affects how another player is canceled out. If Kerry Collins’ contract number is used, it would cancel out Session and result in a 6th round compensation for Charlie Johnson. If the 5th round value is used, it would cancel out Johnson and give Indy a 4th rounder for Session. We’ll guess for now that the Colts will be awarded the 4th round pick for Session.|
|Raiders||4 or 5||Robert Gallery||See Raiders explanation above|
|Giants||5 or 6||Kevin Boss||The Giants lost Steve Smith (1 yr $2.2 million), Kevin Boss (4 yr $16 million), and Barry Cofield (6 yr $36 million). They signed David Baas (5 yr $27.5 million). They should get comp picks for losing Smith and Boss.|
|Jets||5 or 6||Shaun Ellis||The Jets lost Braylon Edwards (1 yr $1 million), Brad Smith (4 yr $15 million), Shaun Ellis (1 yr $4 million), and Drew Coleman (3 yr $7.4 million). They signed no players that would qualify for a comp pick.|
|Browns||6||Eric Wright||The Browns lost Lawrence Vickers (2 yr $3 million), Chansi Stuckey (2 yr $3.5 million), Matt Roth (1 yr $3 million), Jason Trusnik (2 yr $2 million), Eric Wright (1 yr $3.5 million), and Abram Elam (1 yr $2.5 million). They signed Brandon Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million) and Usama Young (3 yr $6 million). The Browns should qualify for the maximum four picks, all in very late rounds.|
|Jets||6||Brad Smith||See Jets explanation above.|
|Browns||6||Matt Roth||See Browns explanation above|
|Falcons||6||Michael Koenan||possibly no pick, see below|
|Jets||7||Drew Coleman||See Jets explanation above.|
|Steelers||7||Matt Spaeth||The Steelers lost Matt Spaeth (3 yr $6 million) and Nick Eason (2 yr $2 million). They didn’t lose any qualifying players.|
|Giants||7||Steve Smith||See Giants explanation above.|
|Packers||7||Brandon Jackson||See Packers explanation above.|
|Browns||7||Lawrence Vickers||See Browns explanation above|
|Packers||7||Jason Spitz||See Packers explanation above.|
|Steelers||7||Nick Eason||See Steelers explanation above.|
|Jets||7||Braylon Edwards||See Jets explanation above.|
|Browns||7||Jason Trusnik||See Browns explanation above|
|Colts||7||Extra||Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves additional picks at the end, which according to AdamJT13 follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.|
|Jaguars||7 – Mr. Irrelevant||Extra||The Browns are projected to receive the maximum four picks already for losing Wright, Roth, Vickers, and Trusnik. If that is accurate, the “extra picks” will probably skip them, and the Jags will be awarded the last pick. If the Browns are not awarded the maximum number of picks before we get to the extra picks, they should be awarded one here instead, in which case the Jaguars will not receive a pick. Also, if there’s anyone we missed above, the Jags will be first in line to lose this pick, followed by the Redskins, and so on.|
First, I should note that I projected compensatory picks last year as well, and did rather well. I was able to correctly assign picks for players with the exception of Seattle and Baltimore, where a midseason contract renegotiation with Cory Redding that I was not aware of gave Baltimore a pick instead of Seattle receiving a rather high pick from losing Nate Burleson. I was also off by a round for a few picks, most of which I can relate to playing time differential.
I claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I merely used compensatory pick guru AdamJT13’s publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. Unfortunately it looks like he has abandoned his research. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:
1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
This year was an unusual year in that the new labor contract virtually eliminated RFAs, and does so in the future as well. Also, because of the shortened time before the season, a lot of contracts went unreported, which means that I had to spend a lot of time looking for the information. There remain about a dozen players for which I failed to find information, although the majority of those players were likely to receive minimal contracts that would not qualify for a compensatory pick.
I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary. Last year it lowered Artis Hicks significantly, but not AJ Feeley, who did not take a snap. I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed). Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves about 6 additional picks at the end, which according to AdamJT13 follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.
And finally, an approximation of the annual salary ranges for compensatory picks.
|Projected round||Appoximate salary range|
|3||$6.5/$7 million and greater|
|4||$5 to $6.5/$7 million|
|5||$4 to $5 million|
|6||$2.5/$2.75 to $4 million|
|7||$1 to $2.5/$2.75 million|
If you have any questions, fire away.