October 20th, 2011:

Some interesting NFC East Vegas betting lines

Oct 20th, 2011
by Jimmy Kempski.
12 comments

Per Bodog, the Giants are the favorites to win the NFC East:

- Giants – 2.9/1

- Eagles and Cowboys – 3.6/1

- Redskins – 4.75/1

Yet, among the NFC East teams, the Eagles have the best odds to win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl:

- Eagles – 13/1 to win the NFC, 21/1 to win the SB.

- Giants – 16/1 to win the NFC, 31/1 to win the SB.

- Cowboys – 21/1 to win the NFC, 36/1 win to win the SB.

- Redskins – 26/1 to win the NFC, 51/1 to win the SB.

I’m guessing Vegas thinks that since the Giants have the best record, they’re more likely to win the division, but should the Eagles somehow get themselves into the tourney, they’re the most likely to make some serious noise?  Any other lines of thinking out there?

Can McGruber go INT-free?

Some other fun prop bets…

- John Beck  total passing yards – 225.5.  I’ll take the under, please.

- John Beck total TD passes – 1.5 – Hmmm… tough call. Gonna go under.

- John Beck total INTs – 0.5 – Really?  OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER (hyperventilating) OVER OVER OVER.

- DeMarco Murray total rushing yards – 54.5 – Under.

When the Redskins control the time of possession…

Oct 20th, 2011
by Jimmy Kempski.
15 comments
Matchup Redskins T.O.P. Opponent T.O.P. Edge Who won?
Redskins-Giants 32:36 27:24 Redskins +5:12 Redskins
Redskins-Cardinals 38:30 21:30 Redskins +17:00 Redskins
Redskins-Cowboys 28:24 31:36 Cowboys +3:12 Cowboys
Redskins-Rams 35:10 24:50 Redskins +10:20 Redskins
Redskins-Eagles 38:08 21:52 Eagles +16:16 Eagles

NFC East Week 7 picks

Oct 20th, 2011
by Jimmy Kempski.
15 comments

Last week – 1-2

On the season – 8-10

Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, and Steve Smith remind me a little of a poor man's version of Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson

Redskins @ Panthers

This is actually a really interesting match-up.  The Panthers have a good offense, while the Redskins have a good defense, and the Redskins have a bad offense while the Panthers have a bad defense.  The Panthers are 5th in the NFL in yards, with an impressive average of 418 per game.  Meanwhile, the Skins have given up the the 3rd least points per game, at 16.6.

On the other side of the ball, the Skins’ offense comes limping in.  The Skins started the season mildly strong against the Giants and Cardinals, games in which they were at least able to sustain drives, as they had the edge in time of possession by +5:12 and +17:00, respectively.  Since then, the Skins have only been able to muster 16, 17, and 13 points against the Cowboys, Rams, and Eagles.  Those three teams, in their non-Redskin games, have given up an average of over 27 points per game.

The Panthers’ offense actually kind of reminds me a little of the Eagles, in that they have a mobile QB, a fast shrimpy WR, and a shifty but powerful RB.  Jonathan Stewart aside, however, the surrounding pieces don’t touch Philly’s firepower with a ten foot pole.  Washington got off to an awful start against the Philly offense.  After an initial 3 and out, the Skins proceeded to give up 20 points and an embarrassing 264 yards on the next 4 drives, and trailed 20-3 at the half.  Whatever adjustments the Skins made at halftime worked, as they goose egg’d the Eagles in the second half.

I think the Skins’ D will play better in the first half than they did against Philly last week, and I think the offense will do just just enough in the run game against the Panthers’ 31st ranked run D.  If the Skins can control the ball and the time of possession, they win.  And I think they will.

Rams @ Cowboys

I’m not going to analyze this one any more than it needs to be analyzed.  Sam Bradford or no Sam Bradford, the Rams are the worst team in the NFL.  Cowboys in a romp.