Nnamdi Asomugha is the most overrated player in the league? Seriously, KC Joyner?

(Deep breath)… Do I really want to do this again?  (Sigh)… Crap.  I was just sitting here nicely watching the Phillies game, Joyner.  Minding my own.  My pregnant wife is at her PTA meeting (she’s a teacher), the dog is walked and fed, cat fed, dishes done, and I just wanted a rare night to effing relax.  But noooooo… You just couldn’t have that now, could you?  Had to write some more insanely stupid nonsense again… And I really don’t want to be labeled as that guy that tears everything apart, but I can’t get myself to just ignore it.  Screw you for that, Joyner.  Dammit, let’s just get right to it.

Here’s the link (you need to be a paid “ESPN Insider” to read this junk):

The recurring postseason disappointments meant Philadelphia needed more elite talent than its current methods were producing, so the team went about acquiring a slew of players that eventually became known, for better or worse, as the “Dream Team.”

There is one notable problem: The acquisitions that brought along the “Dream Team” comment from Vince Young may form the most overrated group of players in the NFL.

Teams only threw at Nnamdi Asomugha less than 2 times per game the last four years, but when they did... well... not that much really happened. Overrated.

Sigh… Alright, so what’chu got this time, KC?

It all starts with the most highly publicized offseason signing, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.

Alright, you’ve got my attention.

The conventional book on Asomugha is that his coverage skills are so superior that few teams will throw passes at him.

Yeah, that’s always been my perception of the guy. What am I missing?

There’s an element of truth to that, as Asomugha has finished as the least-targeted cornerback in pro football for each of the past three seasons. But that may be as much due to the Oakland Raiders’ defense, Asomugha’s previous team, as anything else. Oakland allowed more rushing yards in 2008-10 than any other team in the NFL, so its opponents could pound the ball on the ground to their hearts’ content and not have to worry about throwing at Asomugha.

Hmmm… interesting point.  And you know what?  I even did a little research on my own.  It appears that Oakland had the least amount of passing attempts against them in each of the past 2 seasons.  That was with Nnamdi.  So far, without Nnamdi, Oakland has the the second MOST passing attempts against them in 2011.  But OK, let’s not get bogged down with all of that.  I know you have a lot to say, so let’s keep it moving.  Please, continue…

His backers will say this is because of the low sample size, but check out Asomugha’s composite coverage metrics during the past seven years:

 

Season Att Inc./Off PI Pen Yards YPA Success rate INT
2004 51 14 413 8.1 27.50% 0
2005 69 36 435 6.3 52.20% 0
2006 61 33 421 6.9 54.10% 8
2007 35 22 244 7 62.90% 1
2008 30 15 162 5.4 50% 1
2009 25 9 228 9.1 36% 1
2010 29 15 191 6.6 51.70% 0
Total 300 144 2094 7 48% 11

Wow, looks pretty awesome to me.  So what’s up?

Three-hundred pass attempts ought to be enough to get past the low sample size argument. Since the league average for yards per attempt (YPA) is usually around 7.5, Asomugha’s 7.0 YPA in this time frame means he is somewhat above average but not anywhere near Revis’ level.

Since this coverage trend has also continued through two games with Philadelphia (86 yards allowed on six pass attempts), it is not a stretch to say that Asomugha may be the most overrated player in the NFL.

Wait… what?!?  That’s not how I read that chart. Stop me when there’s anything you disagree with. Nnamdi’s breakout season was 2006, when he had 8 picks on just 61 passes that came his way.  The following season and beyond is when opposing QBs just kinda said, “Ehhh, maybe we’ll just not throw at him.”  He gave up 244 yards in 2007.  I have that right, right?  OK.  He gave up 162 yards in 2008, right?  Yup, OK.  And he gave up 228 yards in 2009?  Let’s see… Yup, that’s what your chart says.  And finally, 191 yards last season.

OK, so… (And yeah, the “OK, so…” gets its own paragraph)

244 + 162 + 228 + 191 = 825 yards allowed the past 4 years.

(I’ll take a bathroom break while everyone checks my math).

OK, I’m back.  Now, hang in there with me on this one.  Nnamdi, over the past 4 season, has played in 60 games (he missed 4).

825 yards allowed / 60 games = 13.75 yards allowed per game.

Again, by my math (and I’ll admit the math is very complicated here, and I’m no math wizard), Nnamdi Asomugha has given up an average of 13.75 yards per game over the past 4 years.  I would invite anyone to please let me know if I have that incorrect.

Obviously, OVERRATED!

OK, so I understand you were interested in attacking Steve Smith, too.  Do I have that correct?  Yes?  OK, let’s hear it:

Steve Smith? BAH! Who needs him? The Giants have Victor Cruz!

New York’s biggest issue with Smith was that it thought he would not be ready to play until October; he thought he would be ready to go earlier than that. Well, it’s two games into the season and Smith has been targeted three times thus far, so the Giants look to have been right about his early season effectiveness.

Well, Andy Reid stated today that he too didn’t think Smith would be ready until roughly October, but that was OK, considering… you know… he’s the 4th receiver in Philly, and will be probably be no higher than the 5th option in the passing game this season.  But Smith has actually been far ahead of schedule. He was only on the field for 5 snaps Week 1, but saw his playing time increase to 19 snaps Week 2.  In that limited time, he contributed a couple catches for 29 yards.  It’s certainly more than I expected when the Eagles first signed him.  So yeah… alright… early season effectiveness might be a little down in comparison to a player that’s 100% healthy, but I think that maybe… just maybe… the Giants would rather start him this week against Philly than say… Victor Cruz?

OK, so who else you feel like criticizing?

(Ronnie)Brown was let go by Miami in large part because he was one of the least productive backs in the league last year on plays with good blocking (which is loosely defined as when the blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt).

His 5.3 GBYPA (good blocking yards per attempt) was tied for next-to-last among running backs with 100 or more carries last year.

Ronnie Brown’s 5.3 GBYPA (good blocking yards per attempt) was tied for next-to-last among running backs with 100 or more carries last year, huh? That may be true, but his YGAADGWATYY (yards gained after a defender got within a three yard radius) led the entire NFL. See? I can just make up nonsense too.

You done yet?

(Vince) Young’s time with the Tennessee Titans was chock-full of office politics and injuries, and those factors eventually led in part to Jeff Fisher’s departure.

That doesn’t bode well for Young, but the fact that he barely beat out Mike Kafka for the backup quarterback role before the season may say even more. Kafka is currently the No. 2 quarterback, as Young was inactive for the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.

Hamstring injury?!?  HAMSTRING INJURY?!?!?!?  Get this team cancer the hell off the team.  He’s not fit to be a backup QB in this league!

Any final words?

(The Eagles) are just as they were before these players arrived, a very talented team that still has something to prove in the postseason. Unless and until they do that, the “Dream Team” appellation should be avoided.

Hey, we actually agree there.  But you know what else should be avoided?  Buying a subscription to ESPN Insider.

124 Comments

  1. Pizzle says:

    Ironic now, isn’t it? Good article Jimmy, but hindsight is 20/20, and yes, we Giant fans would rather have Cruz than Smith. In fact, Steve Smith was one of our best players yesterday lol. So Nhamdi gave up 191 yards ALL OF LAST YEAR, but gave up 110 to Cruz, probably our fourth or fifth best receiver? I guess he was overrated and simply not tested enough, due to his 8Int season in 07, and the Raiders porous run D.

    1. “we Giant fans would rather have Cruz than Smith”

      Come on, now. He had a good game and all, but let’s get real.

      “So Nhamdi gave up 191 yards ALL OF LAST YEAR, but gave up 110 to Cruz”

      Nnamdi gave up the one TD to Cruz, but was not responsible for the rest.

      ‘I guess he was overrated and simply not tested enough, due to his 8Int season in 07, and the Raiders porous run D.’

      Yeah, I don’t think so on that one either. Great win for the G-Men, and you should be excited, Pizzle, but let’s dial it back a shade.

  2. JT says:

    Who;s gonna be the first to place the blame elsewhere??? Who’s gonna be the first to let me know I wasn’t as full of it as you all thought?? Can any Iggles fan put aside their pride for a moment?? We’ll see…..

    1. Well, what are we talking about? One play? The Eagles were in zone coverage, and Eli threw a perfect ball. Nnamdi was right there, but the receiver made an awesome play on the ball, and Nnamdi didn’t make the play. Sometimes the other team does good. So now Nnamdi sucks, I suppose.

  3. […] Cruz.  On paper, that trifeca of WRs is grossly over-matched by the CB trio of Nnamdi Asomugha (the most overrated player in the game, to some), Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  One area where the Eagles have been […]

  4. brisulph says:

    When I saw 97 comments, I expected something dumb, but JT really went all out.

    1. D3Keith says:

      True, and it’s a non-Eagles fan saying it. You must be a fan of *another* team where the GEDs are a plenty and the blue-collarin’ makes the intelligentsia … man I can’t even finish lol

      1. brisulph says:

        haha… it is amazing you guys can even read the internet apparently.

  5. E4GLES! says:

    Jimmy,

    I think KC’s last point about Nnamdi is being misinterpreted. He starts off stating that Nnamdi is not in Oakland anymore. Then, states his old YPA (7.0). Lastly, he says that coverage trend is continuing in PHI, meaning that QBs are still not throwing his way. However, he puts the stat in there that he’s given up 86 yards on 6 attempts. That’s 14.3 YPA. Over 16 games or ~30 attempts, maybe he projecting that Nnamdi will give up close to 400 yards.

    By no means do I think KC is right about his overrated statement. I’m just playing devil’s advocate. If KC watched any of the falcon’s game, which I was at, he’d notice that Nnamdi completely shut Roddy White out of the game. It was a great sight to see.

    1. Mikesta says:

      He shut down Julio Jones hard. Nnamdi’s a beast.

  6. Mikesta says:

    JT, saying Nnamdi wasn’t tested when he played for Oakland shows you have no idea what you’re talking about.

    1. JT says:

      Obviously proven yesterday…. oh and I’ve seen almost every game Nnamdi’s played in.

  7. Jay Walker (GIB) says:

    Awwwww, Jimmy. Your first real troll. Congrats.

    1. JT says:

      Trolling… educating… I know there’s not much of a difference to 90% of the readers here. Stay up!

      1. Davis says:

        What did you educate us on? Other than the fact that you have sub-par reading comprehension, don’t understand statistics, and when your statements are met with backed up thoughts to the contrary you point fingers and sling insults.

        It really is a problem that KC Joyner and people like you are just looking for something that isn’t there, simply because you want to be the first to find it. It’s like when I say “hey, the sky is going to turn Purple on New Years Eve 2013” If it does I’m a hero, but if it doesn’t who cares (joyner says giants are front runners in NFC East).

        KC Joyner consistently makes up statistics that have no bearing on the game of football. He said the Falcons cornerbacks are the best in the league I believe (are you f-ing kidding me!). I understand he is trying to give a different take on the game, but his reasoning is legitimately insane. I have kept a close eye on, and commented on KC Joyner several times in the past and a prime example I gave in comparison still rings true:

        I was playing basketball the other day, but only went 10 for 18 from the field. But 80% of my missed shots hit the back of the rim instead of the front. Meaning my propensity to get a good bounce and have it go in was much higher than not. So in that respect I am an awesome basketball player and shouldn’t be judged on my actual performance. Only the fact that I will be in the NBA next year because of my “High-Positive-Bounce-After-Missed-Shot-Potential-Stat-That-I-Just-Made-Up”……sounds like an awesome argument right?

        That is what KC bases all of his articles on, complete and utter BS.

      2. Kyle says:

        You educated nobody and proved nothing. You just spewed nonsense and insulted people.

    2. If only I could frame him and put him on the wall.

      1. Fiftyfourd says:

        In a dart board I hope

      2. Fiftyfourd says:

        Correct me if I’m wrong Jimmy, but hasn’t this been the most comments per article (or MCPA) on this site?

        1. D3Keith says:

          That was a fake KC stat, no?

          MCPA can’t be used to scientifcally interpret which blog posts are the best though. Sometimes a troll just skews it

    3. Fiftyfourd says:

      Haha, I was going to say the same thing! Guess it took me too long to read all the comments because of my “blue collaristic intelligence”!

    4. D3Keith says:

      Yup,
      You know you’ve made it when you get a troll. And one that pushes the comments past 100 too?

      Jason had JIBTA.
      Tommy has Morton.
      Jimmy has JT.

      Congrats brother.

      1. Haha, I don’t know who Morton is, but now I’ll have to keep an eye out.

        1. D3Keith says:

          I never noticed him until about a week ago, after they were discussing him as we discuss JIBTA. Like predicting his negative reaction to something before he even showed up. I don’t know if he’s a carryover from IgglesBlog or what but he’s definitely a meme in the comments.

        2. Steve D. says:

          Morton was a regular on Igglesblog for years. Sometimes he makes some interesting points, but always has a negative view on everything relating to the Eagles.

  8. ATLEagle says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57RoEKlbUE8

    I think the guy that Nnamdi shuts down in this game is supposed to be pretty good.

  9. JT I mean KC for president says:

    Ok KC your new name is now KJ Toyner….ya douche. You are correct though on how smart you are. I think you should better use your far superior brain to better the world to work for NASA, instead of analyzing foozball….better yet, your stats and theriums are so genius and vastly ahead of any human on earth you should use these same theriums to catch the terrorists and induce world peace. Come to think of it….it’s clear now you are actually a terrorist and hate the US because we have an awsome game called football, while you play with a stick and a rock licking the pubes on your disgusting face. I hope you die soon of horrible horrible AIDS. P.s. Your comebacks were great! Guess that’s why u use explosives.

  10. […] Nnamdi Asomugha is the most overrated player in the league? Seriously, KC Joyner? – Blogging t…Again, by my math (and I’ll admit the math is very complicated here, and I’m no math wizard), Nnamdi Asomugha has given up an average of 13.75 yards per game over the past 4 years. I would invite anyone to please let me know if I have that incorrect. […]

  11. rage114 says:

    My problem with the Joyner article is that he appears to have a bone to pick with the Eagles.

    As a result, he forms an opinion, draws a conclusion, and THEN tries to find evidence to support that conclusion.

    Ignoring Jimmy’s statistics for a moment, you can’t help but think there are some holes in this analysis.

    OK, so teams average 7.0 yards against him per attempt. But why is there no comment on the number of attempts per game? Since 2004, Nnamdi played in 107 games. That is 300/107 = 2.80 attempts against him per game. And since 2007, that number goes down to 119/59 = 2.02 attempts against him per game.

    I think that is pretty important. That is one attmept per half.

    Additionally, this isn’t baseball and this isn’t fantasy football. Stats never tell the whole story. What was the coverage? Did he expect help? What is the pass rush right?

    All these things are factors in the success of a DB.

    From what I understand, he was asked to routinely play on an island with little to no help. I also understand that other players, coaches, and analysts routinely indicate that QBs stay away from his side. I do not have the resources to confirm or deny that.

    But I think an analysis of those metrics would tell a better story. Is it obvious by looking at tape, not statistics, that offenses stayed away from his side? Or is Joyner right in that it was just a function of a poor run defense so his numbers looked better than they are?

    In the short time he has been in Philly, I am inclined to believe the former. I’m not sure if Joyner watched the game on Sunday but Matty Ice stayed away from Aso and targeted the receive Samuel was covering. No stats. Just watched the game.

    1. Bob says:

      It’s like no one’s watched footage of Nnamdi.
      His guy is rarely open in single coverage.
      He jams receivers at the line like nobody’s business. His technique is pretty much flawless here. He’s got proven ballhawk skills from when they used to throw his way.

      You want to know why no one throws to him? His man isn’t open. Watch tape. All the NFL coaches did. That’s why they don’t throw his way.

    2. Steve D. says:

      “As a result, he forms an opinion, draws a conclusion, and THEN tries to find evidence to support that conclusion.”

      That is certainly what is seems like to me. And when he can’t find statistics to support his conclusion, the “scientist” resorts to vaugue arguments like:

      “(Vince) Young’s time with the Tennessee Titans was chock-full of office politics and injuries, and those factors eventually led in part to Jeff Fisher’s departure.

      That doesn’t bode well for Young, but the fact that he barely beat out Mike Kafka for the backup quarterback role before the season may say even more. Kafka is currently the No. 2 quarterback, as Young was inactive for the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.”

      This doesn’t seem like a very scientific assessment of Vince Young.

    3. D3Keith says:

      YES!

      “As a result, he forms an opinion, draws a conclusion, and THEN tries to find evidence to support that conclusion.”

      This is a dangerous way to write. I know because I’ve done it (and gone back and rewritten before publishing I hope).

      It means you look for reasons to support your conclusion and turn a blind eye to anything that doesn’t.

      In this click-driven world, it doesn’t surprise me that people do it. But it is surprising that people who know better do.

      JimmyK, keep doing these. If nobody checks the hacks, they blend right in with everyone else and ruin the credibility of the good writers.

  12. fock_operator says:

    JT’s right that YPG isn’t the be-all, end-all of metrics for cornerbacks, but YPA isn’t either. Just as YPG is affected by variables like team defense and who the opposite cornerback is, YPA is going to be affected by things like tackling ability and the tendency to jump routes. A gambler like Asante is going to get more picks because he’ll jump routes, but the other side of the coin is a worse YPA, as he’s more likely to get beat on a double move. (That’s my speculation, at least; I don’t have the stats to back it up.)

    1. JT says:

      Great post, Fock. YPA isn’t the end-all but it is far more accurate. Joyner has once coined Samuel for being very overrated for that same reason. He has been great but he also has been a dud at times. You can Google that article to find it. It’s about many CBs, not just Asante.

      1. fock_operator says:

        In a vacuum, I think YPA is a more accurate stat. It’s more dependent on the CB himself instead of the team around him. But the danger in completely neglecting YPG or attempts per game is that you can completely lose sight of how phenomenal Asomugha’s numbers in Oakland are. It’s a mistake to look at YPA alone and say he’s an average corner when you can fairly safely intuit that an average corner will be targeted more than only twice a game over the last four years, even if the surrounding defense was terrible.

        I think the most likely explanation that uses both the YPA and YPG data is that Asomugha really is an exceptional cover corner. Imagine grouping all of his plays into three categories based on how well his man is covered; call them, “completely covered”, “kinda covered”, or “way the hell open”. I would guess that what’s happened in Oakland is that the only times he’s targeted are when someone is “way the hell open” — and when someone is way the hell open, they tend to gain a decent amount of yards. Opposing quarterbacks avoid him, and so they want to pick on other corners unless there’s a sure completion.

        Now, surrounded by other above average CBs, I think what we’ll see in Philly is an increase in targets, and a corresponding decrease in YPA. QBs will have to start targeting him when he has receivers “kinda covered”, because on many plays the alternative will be trying to throw to someone blanketed by Asante or DRC. The YPAs for those passes will be, mostly, 0, since Asomugha will defend them.

        1. JT says:

          I agree you could lose sight but I would say they just seem to lose relevance. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Aso fan and he is arguably the best. He just wasn’t tested too much in Oakland too often and when seeing more action, as of now, he has shown to have slipped. YPG is a better stat for different positions. Not CB though as they can be avoided both by throwing elsewhere and running the ball. That’s why I would HEAVILY put more weight on YPA. I will never call Aso “average” though. “Overrated”? Possibly. When you’re on top, there’s only one way to go.

          I like your second paragraph also.

          We’ll just have to see how Nnamdi does in Philly but just as of now, it’s not looking like it’ll be on par w/ what it was in Oakland.

          1. D3Keith says:

            Well this is the most rational thing you’ve posted all day.

            Personally I don’t get people’s obsession with trying to determine if Nnamdi is better than Revis or if he’ll be better than his best year in Oakland — and I don’t mean just you, JT.

            I’ll settle for NA being really effing good and giving the Eagles a chance to win in each of the 19 games they play.

  13. Davis says:

    JT is KC, KC is JT…..finkle and einhorn deja vu

    I think it has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that KC Joyner is a phony. All of his stuff regarding the NFL this year has been complete BS. I honestly cannot believe editors let his stuff slide. And this JT guy is almost as big an idiot as he is. But KC Joyner, JT and all the baseball SABRE nerds on an island somewhere.

    Wait they will just make up a reason that the island technically isn’t an island because of the angle of the sun related to the amount of sand erosion when compared to the average cook time of a Hot Pocket when put in a water proof microwave under the sea in between said island and the mainland.

    Also JT, please make sure you understand numbers, column headers, statistics, the actual game of football, and Math before you try to gallop in on your high horse.

    Jimmy’s high horse is supported by actual facts.

    1. Bisch says:

      The Sabremetrics guys in baseball have revolutionized analysis. And it works, because baseball is mostly made up of countless one-on-one battles. Football, there are so many other moving parts, that the statistical analysis similar to Sabremetrics in baseball falls flat.

      So I do object to you lumping the baseball Sabremetric guys in with KC & JT.

      1. Davis says:

        Ok, I respect your opinion on that, and hate to bring up baseball on a football site. However, Sabermetrics is pretty unreliable. For example, SABRE supporters say Ryan Howard isn’t valuable based on his WAR. Which is complete insanity. So they are saying a bench player would replace Ryan Howard without much dip in wins.

        The only team to base their drafting, and complete building of the team on Sabremetrics (Oakland A’s, featured in Moneyball), have consistently not made the playoffs and haven’t had a winning record in 5 years (before implementing this the A’s actually fielded 3 different R.O.Y. winners in 3 consecutive years).

        They claim this has enabled them to field a team on a low payroll, but they have the 21st lowest payroll, while the Tampa Bay Rays have the 29th ranked payroll and have made the playoffs, and are actually very good.

        While it may be an interesting new spin on analyzing baseball performance and guessing stats for the future etc., there were already statistics that actually prove one on one probability; the actual performance statistics that have been in place for years.

        1. zac says:

          A’s were actually behind on using SABR for team composure the teams that were on it first and use it the most now are actually the Ray’s who you mention and the Red Sox… The A’s and Billy Beene were such a big part of that book because they were the first to jump on OBP being more important to winning than just Average. Thus they valued guys who could get lots of walks. Now everyone does that so they lost that competitive advantage. The next trend was valuing defense more highly, which is how the Ray’s came up so strongly the last few years but now everyone has started to jump on that as well. Who knows what the next market inefficiency is but I’m sure someone will exploit it soon and there will be another team worth talking about.

          SABR is not that new and as of now 100% of teams use it to a major degree I promise you.

          What they have done more is to show how the “normal” stats that people use to quantify performance are not as useful as people think. Things like ERA (players they face, defense behind them, field (denver)), Saves (chances are situational (good teams are ahead too often by more than 2 and bad are behind by more)), BA (only quantifies one aspect of getting on base, pitcher and defense you face), and RBI’s (by far the worse, so heavily affected by the team you are on, just look at how many RBI’s yankees get vs low scoring teams, they just score that many more runs) are all affected by the teams around them.

          As for Ryan Howard, the big complaint by the SABR community is that his production and projected future production doesnt justify his new contract. He has a 1.6 WAR on fangraphs and a 2.6 WAR on Baseball-Refernce (they use a different defensive metric). These are both good numbers and no one would argue a replacement player would be better. But even if you just look at his offensive numbers this season he hasn’t been a top 5-10 guy and his defense and base-running are both pretty poor. That’s why his numbers come out like that.

          I do agree however that this doesn’t work nearly as well in Football, at least not yet due to the fact that baseball is made up of 1-1 battles while football is so much more team. I hate the KC Joyner article, and I completely think he has discovered nothing of use yet, but I like that he and other people are trying to find a way to better value players.

          1. Davis says:

            Ryan Howard is second in the NL in RBI’s, tied for 6 in HR’s. He has had over 100 RBI’s for I think 6 straight years. His defense has actually been much improved, and his base running ability is actually startling for a man of his size. If you watch him every night. He actually is top ten in a SABRE stats, Isolated Power, At Bats per Homeruns, and Secondary Average. I am not saying the Phils didn’t overpay Ryan Howard, but since when does Sabermetrics stats trump the major stats regarding contracts? The Yankees and Red Sox wind up overpaying everyone, it’s the nature of the beast.

            I recognize SABRE as a useful tool, and spin on baseball (a very stat heavy sport), but I’m not a fan of all these people forcing it on others as a “be all, end all” now that should dictate how players are judged.

            I agree that it doesn’t work anywhere close to well with Football for the reasons you mention.

  14. SB71 says:

    Joyner actually wrote a pretty good book a few years back called “Blindsided” which took aim at football conventional wisdom (“you need a franchise running back to win a Super Bowl,” etc.). But he stuck with real stats for that book.

    He is now making it up out of you know where. Real shame because he’s got an interesting perspective on football and is a good writer.

    1. JT says:

      That is a great read, you’re very correct. It’s what got me into Joyner. How are his stats not real though? Just b/c they’re in depth? He’s not making things up either, he’s just detailed and actually goes beneath the surface to make an opinion closer to factual information…. if that makes sense haha. Hard thing to word but I think you get me.

      1. Davis says:

        His made up stats actually rely on interpretation: GBYPA (good blocking yards per attempt)

        Is there a mathematic equation or does math in general support what is considered Good Blocking?

        Does it take into account schemes, formations, # of dedicated blockers, types of blocks (cuts, chops, pancakes)?

      2. Turd.Ferguson says:

        Are you trying to argue that ‘good blocking yards per attempt’ is actually a real stat? For starters, it’s completely objective, and therefore not a statistic. Statistics are raw data. There is objectivity in determining what is ‘good blocking’. Also, do you really that he watched every rushing attempt made by every running back in every game of the entire season to compute a stat like that? Even if it did actually happen there’s no way that he did it himself. It would have had to be a crew of people, and given that the ‘statistic’ is objective it would be further flawed by different people’s opinions of what makes ‘good blocking’. I’m a numbers guy. I’m an accountant. I love statistics and statistical analysis. But statistics don’t mean squat if your procedures for collecting them are flawed.

        1. Davis says:

          good timing

        2. Steve D. says:

          I think you mean “subjective” when you say “objective”. Other than that, great post and I agree 100%.

          1. Turd.Ferguson says:

            You’re absolutely right. My bad

      3. it's_my_vick_in_a_box!! says:

        SB71 = JT = KC

        How do you guys like that math?

      4. youmadbro? says:

        Mad Bro?

  15. Tron says:

    I have nothing against people arguing against you Jimmy, but you should probably just delete all ad hominem laced rants in the comment section.

    How did KC Joyner get the title “football scientist”, from my experience with his “metrics” his analytics are laughable.

    1. JT says:

      Jimmy’s entire post is an ad hominem. Sorry you don’t agree w/ it.

      1. JTlicksjoynerslollipop says:

        Dude, JT just (or should I say KC) just get your head out of your ass. You havent presented anything that remotely backs up what you are talking about. Ok, so the yards were off as evidenced by the correction above.

        Just eat a bag of dicks dude, you really dont know what you are talking about.

        1. JT says:

          Typical Iggles fan above. These are the people you all should be ashamed of when it comes to your fan base. I have had the impression that Iggles fans were the dumbest, childish, most immature fans in football b/c of people above.

          Thanks for furthering it, kid (even though you’re probably like 32).

          1. Smitty2K3 says:

            You’re a Cowboys fan, aren’t you?

            I can just tell.

            You’re probably a fan of the Lakers, Yankees, and Red Wings too.

          2. zac says:

            It is quite immature to say things such as:
            “the writer of this rebuttal is retarded and most of you are so two faced it’s retarded”
            “your blue colloaristic lifestyle” (colloaristic is not a word by the way)
            “The rest is up to you and more than likely your degree that never made it past a GED”
            “I’ll speak on a lower level so your head doesn’t spin”
            “you seriously are a detriment to society and need to walk in traffic. Your inability to follow along is honestly amazing needs to be studied by science to prevent it in the future.”

            You love to make personal attacks of people when you have no actual information to argue with even though they are nonsensical and have zero backing. I can’t figure out what your problem is but please enlighten us…

            1. D3Keith says:

              The best part about this whole comment string is dude tried to paint Philly fans with a broad brush, came with the same lame insights, and nobody really gave two shits and took the bait.

              When you try to explain a point 27 times and nobody gets it, it’s because your point sucks. Or doesn’t exist. Funny how you insist it’s good and everyone else is too dense to get it. Riiiiight.

              Damn, almost took the bait. lol

              1. D3Keith says:

                /cobb’d.

                insults. Although the insights were lame too.

          3. Chuck says:

            OK, I was trying to be cordial but you seriously are a detriment to society and need to walk in traffic. Your inability to follow along is honestly amazing needs to be studied by science to prevent it in the future.

            Are you calling Eagles fans immature while you tell people to walk in traffic? Yup, its right there. Seriously, grow up if you don’t agree state you don’t agree and walk away KC Joyner.

            1. it's_my_vick_in_a_box!! says:

              He sounds very cordial, doesn’t he?

              ‘J’ is next to ‘K’ on the keyboard.

              ‘T’ rhymes with ‘C.’

              I think I have figured it out guys. KC is on his lunch break and found Jimmy’s rebuttal and now he’s mad bro.

              Get back to work KC! You need to go make up some more ridiculous acronymns so that we can make fun of them!

              1. Joe Mama says:

                “J” also rhymes with “K.”

                And the plot thickens.

      2. Skinsaholic says:

        Ad Hominem=an attempt to negate the truth of a claim by pointing out a negative characteristic or belief of the person supporting it.

        So you are saying there is truth to the fact that Nnamdi Asomugha is the most overrated player in the league. That is ridiculous. He is one of the top players at his position and that is a fact.

        1. JT says:

          He could be one of the most overrated as he wasn’t tested often in Oakland. You don’t know nor do I. We’ll see. Thanks for attempting to educate on something I already knew though.

          1. TommykUD says:

            So now you’re arguing that you really don’t know if Asomugah is overrated or not?

            1. T-rade says:

              He is.. and he could be right but I doubt it and I wouldn’t make the claim at all that Aso was overrated!
              But we haven’t seen how Aso does when faced with a lot of targets his way because he never has. But you can’t really say there would only be so and so few receptions out of 15 targets in a game his way because there never has been.
              Ofcourse the fact that never have been that many says a lot.

              I hope you understand what I mean.

      3. Tron says:

        Jimmy doesn’t call KC “retarded” or any of the other personal attacks aimed at Jimmy’s intelligence and the eagles fanbase. Using insults as a crutch for your argument is what I have a problem with.

        Although this is the internet so I should just say

        U MAD?

  16. Happernecky says:

    So THIS is what ESPN makes people pay for? Ridiculous acronyms for stats and terrible analysis? Isn’t that what Skip Bayless and Merrill Hodge are for?

  17. JT says:

    The writer of this rebuttal should learn Joyner more before he decides to rip him. Focusing on one part, the part where he defends Nnamdi, he obviously isn’t getting what Joyner is saying. The best part, b/c of the mockery he tried to make of Joyner w/ his math, his math is actually wrong…. very wrong.

    “244 + 162 + 228 + 191 = 825” should actually be “266 + 177 + 237 + 206” assuming that middle category is penalty yards which needs to be incorporated into the logic. Would those yards be given up if Aso didn’t commit the penalty? No. Ergo, they’re his yards and should count against him.

    The nitwit who wrote this reply also fails to realize the part about how his YPG are skewed b/c the Raiders are dog crap against the run and they didn’t need to pass.

    Basically what I’m getting at is the writer of this rebuttal is retarded and most of you are so two faced it’s retarded. Had Joyner wrote an article about your precious Eagles doing well, you’d all be on your knees and ready to please.

    Bunch of phoneys. It’s what I expect from Eagles fans though. Not the brightest stars in the sky more times than not.

    1. Alright… So how many penalty yards did Nnamdi have against him? Let me know (with proof), and I’ll add them to the total. Might also have to get those numbers for every other CB in the league too, for a fair comparison. Let’s see it.

      1. JT says:

        Again, you try to act like you’re some genius and yet, you can’t see that those numbers are potentially right in front of you. Also, again, IF YOU KNEW JOYNER, he does use those numbers against every CB in the league when doing YPA (not YPG… I think you failed there also).

        If you want to see it, find it on your own. I’m not one of your mindless cronies. I’m a guy who sees a ton of flaw in your “your article is stupid and I’m gonna show you why” tripe you posted, so I called you out on it.

        1. I’m no genius. In fact, when I was 10, I started a fire in the fireplace and didn’t open the flu. Smoke filled throughout the house. Instead of just dumping water in the fire, my solution was to just put goggles on.

          So agreed… I’m not really all that smart at all.

          But I’m smart enough to know Joyner’s a hack that has some sort of weird hard on for the Eagles. So again, you’re the one making the claim that Nnamdi has some sort of abnormal number of PI yards against him. If that’s the case, the onus is on you, not me, to present them. Otherwise… Bye.

        2. Kyle says:

          “If you knew Joyner…”

          Are you implying that YOU know Joyner? Are you his butt buddy or something? Because that would explain a lot.

      2. Steve D. says:

        “assuming that middle category is penalty yards”

        It looks like JT thinks the third column is penalty yards against Aso. However, the third column is the number of incompletions or offensive pass interfence calls on pass thrown to Aso. So much for his big correction.

        JT, you need to relax, life’s too short to get this worked up.

        1. RHayes says:

          yeah thats the total # of incompletions+ PI not yards from it. Still even so it only pushes the YPG up to 14.7 which is about 1 yard higher. not a big difference to me to make it a big deal.

    2. Also… Oakland faced 1,818 pass attempts the last 4 years. Per Joyner’s numbers, Nnamdi was targeted on 119 on them.

      119/1818 = .065.

      In other words, and again, hang in there with me because this math is hard, when teams DID throw against the Raiders, they only threw at Nnamdi 6.5% of the time.

      Got anything else for me?

      1. JT says:

        See, you’re trying to act all mighty but yet the things I’ve proved wrong to you, when you previously acted mighty, have seemingly been swept under the run and you’re going to argue things that no one is even arguing.

        “Nnamdi Asomugha has given up an average of 13.75 yards per game over the past 4 years. I would invite anyone to please let me know if I have that incorrect.”

        Hey, you were incorrect.

        If you knew ANYTHING about Oakland and Nnamdi you’d understand why he was only thrown at that many times… or better yet, the reasonS why he was only thrown at that many times. You already seem to think you know everything (which is lultastic) so what’s the point of trying to educate you?

        Continue on w/ your flawed math lesson that no one is arguing except you.

        1. I can tell you the exact “reason” teams avoided Nnamdi. Ready? He’s awesome.

          1. JT says:

            He is awesome. Would you be more inclined to challenge that “awesome” w/ Asante Samuel on the other side or Stanford Routt?

            Again, skewed numbers are skewed. Everything isn’t as black and white as you want to think it is. This actually requires a little thought. Ready? Try it some time.

            You obviously like to twist things to favor your side instead of looking at them for how they are. Typical Iggles fan. Doesn’t know jack but will argue to the death that he does. Good luck in all you do, you’ll need it.

            1. Thanks. I’ll be fine. Cheers.

            2. bdawk4ever says:

              “Doesn’t know jack but will argue to the death that he does. Good luck in all you do, you’ll need it.”

              Actually that sounds like a better description of you and Joyner than Jimmy.

              1. Skinsaholic says:

                This guy JT is a moron…he says your math is “wrong, very wrong.” Doing the calculation of yards per game given up using his numbers is 14.76 per game. Up 1.01 yard per game from Jimmys math. He also “assumes” the middle column is penalty yard…no actual confirmation.

                He also claims “IF YOU KNEW JOYNER.” I just “assume” he is just defending his douche buddy since he knows him so well. He also provides no proof to any of his claims of “proving you wrong”

                A skins fan actually has your back on this one

            3. Kyle says:

              You must not follow your buddy KC Joyner too much. If you did you would know about his color ranking system of corners. I believe a “red” corner was a shutdown corner who allowed less than 7 yards per target against him, correct? Then a yellow corner would be something form like 7-8 and a green light corner would be 8+. I think I’m remembering the system correctly but feel free to let me know if I’ve made a mistake.

              Well, lets look at Stanford Routt since 2008 since those are the numbers that I have access to.

              Since 2008 Routt has been targeted 187 times and allowed 1355 yards. That means he allowed 7.2 yards per target and thus he is a firmly entrenched as a ‘yellow’ grade corner. His 7.2 yards per target actually places him .2 yards per target away from being what KC Joyner considers to be the dividing line between the best corners and good corners.

              Clearly Routt isn’t garbage.

              1. JT says:

                Please show me where I said Routt is “garbage”. Thanks

              2. Kyle says:

                For someone who claims to be educated and intelligent you sure haven’t put that on display here. When you write something there are implications that aren’t explicitly stated. I think an uneducated oaf like yourself might call it reading between the lines.

                He is awesome. Would you be more inclined to challenge that “awesome” w/ Asante Samuel on the other side or Stanford Routt?

                Again, skewed numbers are skewed.

                You very clearly implicated Routt here. You said that Asomugha wasn’t tested because he was playing across from Routt and this is the reason Nnamdi has the coverage numbers he has. Thus you implied that he sucks.

        2. packimop says:

          When did you “prove him wrong?” What did you say that proved anybody wrong? You added a TOTAL of 61 yards against in the past 4 years. So instead of having 13.7 yards against per game it would be 14.7 yards per game against. Sorry for the misunderstanding. That whole yard per game is a huuugggeeee difference.

          1. JT says:

            Does 13.7 = 14.7? My god, am I speaking a foreign language here?

            And AGAIN, Joyner NEVER brought up YPG b/c he knows how skewed it is. Read, people. I know in your blue colloaristic lifestyle that it might not be your strong point, but give it a shot.

            1. zac says:

              you realize that you were completely wrong in adding those yards from the column you thought was penalty yards. It was not, it was INCOMPLETE+OFFENSIVE PI plays that season. So that whole analysis is completely wrong. You insult everyone here for their math and financial status yet you couldnt read the article yourself…

              1. zac says:

                Your point was that you should add penalty yards due to the middle column yet that is obviously wrong. If you are just saying to ignore that column and that penalty yards should be added as well that makes no more sense when you consider the fact that it is not currently added to anyone so you would not have any numbers to base it off of. If that is infact what you are arguing then I hope that you realize that you are saying KC Joyner has a problem with his numbers…

                Also I am a little confused by the personal attacks on my education… I assume you are in HS but maybe you can prove that wrong… I am currently in a very highly ranked college at the moment, went to one of the top 5 hs’s in the country where I graduated the top of my class…

            2. Ralf E Chubbs says:

              I had an extremely long and detailed (with facts… what’s that?!) response to this but I think me and my blue colloaristic (what?) lifestyle can sum it up nicely with just one sentence:

              You’re a poo-poo head.

              1. JT says:

                Zac, again, LOOK AT THE POINT I WAS TRYING TO CONVEY AND NOT THE ACTUAL NUMBERS. I can’t spell it any more clearer than that. The rest is up to you and more than likely your degree that never made it past a GED.

            3. Kyle says:

              Well… Considering that the penalty yardage in the middle column isn’t penalty yardage that is against Nnamdi, you’re wrong. Good day sir.

            4. Faris Toosy says:

              I’m right in that colloaristic is a made up word? I mean making up words is not really a strong statement in an argument dude! You could’ve just said ‘Blue collar lifestyle’ instead of trying to sound like a pretentious douchebag!

        3. Kyle says:

          What exactly have you proven?

    3. bdawk4ever says:

      You can put penalty yards on a cornerback because they are so variable- from year to year, from ref to ref, and from situation to situation. They can be highly subjective to the ref calling it, so who knows if its even right.

      So back to the topic at hand, he only gave up 13 yards per game. That is awesome.

      So yes, Joyner is a hack. Including VY and Ronnie Brown in his article as why the Eagles are overrated proves that. They aren’t close to being starters.

      1. bdawk4ever says:

        Reply fail!

    4. zac says:

      CORRECTED:
      The writer of this rebuttal should learn COMMON SENSE more before he decides to rip him. Focusing on one part, the part where he defends JOYNER, he obviously isn’t getting what WORDS ON THE PAGE are saying. The best part, b/c of the mockery he tried to make of JIMMY w/ his math, his math is actually wrong…. very wrong.

      “244 + 162 + 228 + 191 = 825″ should actually NOT be “266 + 177 + 237 + 206″ WHEN REALIZING that middle category is NOT penalty yards which needs to be incorporated into the logic BUT OFFENSIVE PI + INCOMPLETES. Would those yards be ADDED up if Aso ACTUALLY commitED the penalty? YES BUT HE DIDNT. Ergo, they’re NOT his yards and should NOT count against him.

      1. JT says:

        You genius, how about focusing on the point that was attempted to be made instead of the numbers that were posted? I thought that was abundantly clear when I even admitted that I didn’t know if those were the yards but instead just used them to make a point.

        Penalty yards against a player SHOULD be counted against him. THAT is what I was getting across. Next time, I’ll speak on a lower level so your head doesn’t spin.

        1. TommykUD says:

          But the fact is OFFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST THE CORNER! Offensive pass interference is a penalty on the OFFENSE, not the defense.

          1. JT says:

            OK, I was trying to be cordial but you seriously are a detriment to society and need to walk in traffic. Your inability to follow along is honestly amazing needs to be studied by science to prevent it in the future.

            1. it's_my_vick_in_a_box!! says:

              You have yet to make a point here. You just say you have made a point, and then call everyone else stupid for not recognizing it.

              Please kind sir, enlighten us with your vast wisdom!? Explain to us your point, because the one you made above has already been debunked and now you are trying to say that wasn’t the point you were trying to make. Are you telling us your point was subliminal? Shall we read between your convoluted lines?

            2. TommykUD says:

              Your point was that the third column was PI calls against NA. My point is that you have failed to realize throughout the entire conversation that the third column is offensive PI called against the receiver and thus should not count against NA. It appears you are the one who is not able to follow along with the points being made.

              If you want to add in penalty yardage due to defensive PI, do it along with every other corner in the league and let me know where NA ranks.

        2. zac says:

          So KC Joyner was wrong in not having added in penalty yards? Yes that we agree on. If you are arguing that we should incorporate penalties then I have the number for the last 3 years: he committed 6 in 2008, 3 in 2009, and 4 in 2010 (yards are not available) Just for comparison Revis had 10 in the last 3 years (and missed 4 games last year) and his personal number 3 CB in the nfl Grimes has 10 penalties in the last 3 years (and he missed 8 games in that span)

          Joyner is most obviously a NYG supporter that thus does not like the eagles.
          First off lets point out that he calls Cromartie an elite CB when on Arizon: “combined with a top-line secondary that Peterson and Rodgers-Cromartie anchor” yet doesn’t mention him in the article.
          Next look at who he says in his predraft article for most overrated player is “2. Prince Amukamara, Nebraska CB” yet talks about him as the one of the best additions and reason why the Giants are NFC East favorites.
          Then look at 4 of his most recent articles: “NFL – Why the New York Giants are NFC East favorites” on August 16, 2011, “Football Scientist: More reasons the Giants should be NFC East favorites” August 16, 2011, “NFL – Mario Manningham leads underrated fantasy WRs” August 24, 2011, and “NFL – Eli Manning has underrated value as a fantasy QB” August 26, 2011.
          He claims the giants are his NFC East fav yet says in his conference title game picks are “If that means AFC/NFC title games, it would be NE/Pittsburgh and Green Bay/Philadelphia”…

    5. Kyle says:

      KC Joyner is a complete hack and so are you. Look at you for coming over here and acting all high and mighty, like you’re better than Jimmy and all the people who have received the privilege to read your comment. Hop off your high horse please.

      You know that math you were talking about? You should’ve done it before you started spouting off about penalty yardage. If you did you would realize it really doesn’t change much. If you include penalty yardage Nnamdi gave up 14.76 yards a game as opposed to 13.75. Clearly that changes everything, that one yard completely disrupts what Jimmy was talking about.

      The point about the Raiders run defense in regard to Nnamdi would stand if the Raiders were never passed on but they have been. A cornerback’s job is to cover receivers, prevent catches, yards and touchdowns and Nnamdi has consistently done that. He has done his job exceptionally well and the fact that players and coaches respect him enough to almost COMPLETELY AVOID him speaks volumes.

    6. Tom says:

      Inc./Off PI Pen is pretty clearly Incompletions/ Offensive Pass Interference penalties. Not PI yds that should be added.

    7. BSH EricT says:

      “assuming that middle category is penalty yards”

      You know what they say about assuming…as it turns out, the middle category “Inc./Off PI Pen” does not mean “defensive pass interference yards”; it means “incompletions or offensive pass interference calls”. So you’re adding in the numbers of plays where Asomugha prevented a completion to the yards he gave up when the ball was caught.

      Perhaps you should think about whether your assumptions make any sense at all before calling Jimmy a nitwit.

      Also, it seems clear that Joyner’s approach is inherently self-contradictory. If you evaluate Asomugha on number of attempts or total yards given up, he seems awesome. So Joyner chooses to evaluate him on yards per play, citing other players’ weaknesses as the reason Asomugha wasn’t targeted much.

      However, when it comes to Smith, Joyner suddenly focuses on number of targets as the reason Smith is a waste, ignoring the possibility that other players’ strengths might limit Smith’s targets and ignoring the relative success the Eagles had on those plays (67% completions, almost 10 yards per play).

      That’s my real problem with this. The argument that Asomugha might be overrated because people didn’t need to throw at him is reasonable (though Jimmy’s observation about passes this year suggests it was more than that), but the inconsistent approach of cherrypicking whatever number supports the conclusion he wants to reach is intellectually dishonest.

  18. Vince Burke says:

    Jimmy, you’re my hero.

  19. KD says:

    Even I, who thinks that Nnamdi is slightly overrated, would never venture to say something such as this. To say he’s not on Darrell Revis’ level is a much different thing than to call him one of the most overrated corners in the league. He is easily a top 4-5 cornerback in the league.

    The Raiders defense did make it easy to avoid throwing at him. His stats when thrown at don’t scream elite corner, but the limited amount of targets can’t be disputed.

  20. O'Keefy says:

    Fantastic.

  21. Smitty2K3 says:

    I get his breakdown of Nnamdi but it’s completely flawed. I’m going to ignore that. What I want to talk about is the other three players.

    He talks about these players like they were brought in at a high price tag to be key contributors. NO!! That couldn’t be farther from the truth. SS, as Jimmy said, is the 4th WR on the team and is being paid a marginal $2M. This line might’ve been my favorite: “Well, it’s two games into the season and Smith has been targeted three times thus far, so the Giants look to have been right about his early season effectiveness.” Are you effing kidding me!?! Talk about small sample size!! He’s the 5th option in a very talented offense. The Giants were NOT “right” about his early season effectiveness.

    And as for Ronnie Brown and VY. RB is getting $1M to get about 5 carries a game. And VY won’t even see the field (hopefully).

    He seems to ignore the other FA’s that were brought in to actually start! How bout Babin’s 3 sacks in 2 games and Cullen Jenkins’ 2 sacks in 2 games? Nahh they weren’t signed.

    KC Joyner makes my hate for ESPN grow and grow every time he puts his fingers to a keyboard.

    1. Smitty2K3 says:

      BTW, Thanks for ruining my day, Jimmy. I had a good night’s sleep and I was all ready to get to work and be productive today. Nope, you had to bring KC Joyner into my life today! (joking)

  22. T-rade says:

    YGAADGWATYY obviously should’ve been YGAADGWATYR.. Radius starts with an R, Jimmy.. Horrible analysis, you can’t even get abbreviations correct.. I can’t read such filth…

  23. Turd.Ferguson says:

    Absolutely love the GBPYA description. ‘When the blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt’. Maybe I’m nuts, but I think tackling is probably a pretty disruptive act in a rushing attempt. Revised definition: ‘How far the runner will get before he trips over his own feet, is tackled by a player on his own team, or runs off the field Forrest Gump style.’ So it sounds like it basically comes down to how far away you are from the goal line when you get the handoff. You can’t argue against these metrics. It’s science.

  24. Ralf E Chubbs says:

    These posts have been your staple for years… We appreciate it.

    Now, any chance he sees these?

    If not, I’d like to do what I can to somehow make that happen…

  25. Mikesta says:

    KC Joyner is a nut. I wonder what goes through his little brain when he writes these.

  26. nicolajNN says:

    Nnamdi is set up to fail, in the eye of the haters anyway. I don’t expect him to put up quite as impressive numbers considering the other CBs, though he’s off to a good start interception wise.

    GBYPA is useless, what about getting good yards when blocking is not as good? That’s just as important if not more.

    Finally a question, do you actually pay for ESPN Insider? As that seems to be the case, thank you for that sacrifice, these posts are great

  27. Tracer Bullet says:

    I don’t read Joyner; does he have a particular hard-on for the Eagles?

    1. The Legend says:

      He likes to call them & there players overrated that’s it

  28. Steve says:

    He is crazy; and looking for readers

  29. PE says:

    I wonder where Mr. Joyner is from. I tried looking it up, but I couldn’t find anything.

    1. The Legend says:

      He lives in Orlando

      1. Smith says:

        That explains his Mickey Mouse analysis.

        1. JakFTW says:

          Gold.

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