Football Outsiders’ NFC East projections

If you’ve never purchased Football Outsiders’ Almanac, you’re missing out.  This year’s version is 577 pages. Unfortunately, I don’t have a 9-hour flight to Hawaii planned, so it’ll take some time for me to digest the entire thing (or even just the NFC East parts).  I’ll have more on the Almanac at some point, but for now, let’s just look at their 2011 projections, which seem absurdly high for the Eagles:

Team 2011 Mean Projection 0-3 wins 4-6 wins 7-8 wins 9-10 wins 11+ wins
Eagles 11.7 wins 0% 2% 6% 20% 72%
Giants 8.2 wins 5% 23% 26% 26% 21%
Cowboys 7.7 wins 5% 27% 29% 24% 14%
Redskins 5.6 wins 21% 43% 22% 11% 3%

14 Comments

  1. DelusionalGiantsFan says:

    Just more evidence that the Giants are better than the Eagles. They’re 6% more likely to win 9-10 games than the Dream Team.

    1. Steve D. says:

      Is that you KC Joyner?

  2. Jules says:

    So help me understand. A team that won 10 games last year with as many people on IR as anyone else (including GB) returns all their offensive skill players and vastly upgrades personnel on defense… and winning one extra game is “absurdly high?” Do I have that right?

    1. It’s not just the win total (which is 11.7, not 11, just FYI). It’s the percentages of likely number of wins that stand out.

  3. Tbot says:

    I am an Eagles fan and I find it crazy that they think/calculate that the Giants are more likely to win 4-6 games than 11+.

  4. Gary says:

    Wow, only a 28% chance we don’t get 11+ wins? I’m not complaining and I hope it’s right, but that seems high.

    1. cwel87 says:

      It’s not *that* crazy.

      It’s an excellently constructed squad. If they can get out of their own way, they’ll be a great team.

      1. Gary says:

        I hear you. No reason it couldn’t happen, and it probably actually should. Just looked high.

  5. Tyler says:

    I think they were right on with what they projected for Eagles last year. DVOA has a crush on our offense lol

  6. Jason-E says:

    Wow. I guess the real question is how accurate these predictions have been in the past.

    1. packimop says:

      Very accurate. Lots of complex formulas are used when these guys are analyzing each football season. It really is impressive to read.

      1. Jason-E says:

        Data? Link? Or just your opinion?

        1. Jason-E says:

          That comment came out kind of dick-ish. Unintentional. Sorry.

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