Before the 2011 draft, any talk of what the compensation for Kevin Kolb might be in a trade was discussed in terms of that potentially interested team’s specific pick in the 2011 draft. For example, at the time (and still now), the Seahawks were thought to be major players in the “Kolb Sweepstakes.” Everyone knew that they held the 25th overall pick in the draft, so when media types discussed a potential trade with Seattle, they would talk about that 25th overall pick specifically. If you were talking about Miami, you were talking about their 15th overall pick. For the Cardinals, you might say, “The 5th overall pick is too much, but maybe a deal for the 38th overall pick and a 4 might work.”
Meanwhile, if a pick in 2012 was ever discussed, it was thought of as far less valuable than a pick in the 2011 draft.
Obviously, the draft came and went without a new CBA being hammered out, and Kevin Kolb remains in limbo. In the aftermath, something kind of funny among us media and fan types happened. For some reason, ever since the 2011 draft came and went, some people stopped thinking of a 2012 pick as being less valuable. The semantics changed – Instead of referring to a 2012 #1 pick as “a 1 next year,” it began to be thought of simply as “a 1.” The “next year” part was surgically removed.
I can guarantee the Eagles still think of a 2012 pick as a pick “next year,” and would expect that they will require trade compensation to reflect that fact as such.
Back in February, I wrote this long piece about Kevin Kolb and his offseason, the majority of which I still stand behind in July. A number of the dynamics have changed, such as the list of teams that could have interest, but the general crux of the article remains unchanged, and can be summed up by this paragraph:
Those 4 good-to-great starts, quite simply, are enough to intrigue other teams around the league. Being a great NFL QB takes time. A few outliers aside, it’s extraordinarily rare to see QBs have immediate success at this level, and most of the greats experienced similar starts to Kolb’s – some bad outings, with a few unmistakable flashes of great QB play mixed in. It remains to be seen if Kolb can become more consistent if given the opportunity to be a franchise QB, although I believe he will.
Back then, I thought the Eagles would get somewhere around a mid-1 for Kolb. In the aftermath of the draft, many of the 14 potentially interested teams I listed have all but dropped out of the bidding, although there are most definitely plenty of potential suitors, some rampantly rumored (Cards, Seahawks), and others that could be playing a little more coy (Browns, Dolphins, Raiders, Bills).
The Eagles still have plenty of leverage, and I’ve settled on thinking that they’ll recoup something in the ballpark of a 1 and a 4… next year.